Atlanta Braves vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 22, 2026

FINAL+4MIN

ATL

19-7-2

MIN

9-18-1

Lee Health Sports Complex · Fort Myers, Florida

7,077 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

124

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.4± 2.0low
Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high
Trevor LarnachMIN
2.2± 2.4high
Byron BuxtonMIN
2.1± 1.7high

RBIs

Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
3.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

MIN

.720

OPS

.718

▶

.734

.311

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.76

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.85

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.86

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIN wins

ATL 3 · MIN 7 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3
MIN	0	0	0	1	4	0	1	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Wisely2B	.344	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. MateoSS	.205	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. BaldwinC	.325	4	1	2	2	0	0	1
M. YastrzemskiLF	.400	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. HeimC	.172	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.278	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
K. FarmerDH	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Keirsey Jr.CF	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. ClohisyCF	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. WaddellSS	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JarvisSS	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TolveC	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. WorkingerLF	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Verdung2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. TavarezSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Kilpatrick Jr.CF	.444	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. GuanipaCF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	3	6	3	0	2	8

Player

.344

.205

.325

.400

.172

.278

.333

.188

.190

.333

.167

.500

.375

.000

.500

.444

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LopezRP	4.2	5	4	4	2	1	80
J. DashwoodRP	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	11
A. BummerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	8
A. PilarRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	2	33
S. SchanamanP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	18
Team	8.0	12	7	6	3	4	150

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. Keaschall2B	.360	3	1	1	3	1	0	0
B. BuxtonCF	.222	2	2	1	1	1	1	1
M. WallnerRF	.356	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. BellDH	.286	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. JeffersC	.186	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. LarnachLF	.171	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
R. Lewis3B	.128	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. MartinRF	.333	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.154	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
O. ArciaSS	.207	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.220	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. RodenLF	.302	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Wagaman1B	.256	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. JacksonC	.100	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
H. GenthSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BassRF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. GraySS	.205	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Dominguez2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	7	12	5	2	3	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BradleySP	3.1	2	3	2	2	4	63
L. WhitakerRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	5
K. FunderburkRP	2.0	2	0	0	0	2	31
M. BowmanRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	1	30
T. BakerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
Team	9.0	6	3	2	2	8	138

Team

ATL

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs ATL.