Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 22, 2026

FINAL+13TOR

10-17-1

114

TOR

12-14-2

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

6,971 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.2± 3.4medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.3± 0.7high
Junior CamineroTB
1.3± 1.3high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
2.7± 3.7high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.1± 1.3high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.1± 2.0high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Trey YesavageTOR
2.3± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TOR

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.52

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.08

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.16

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TB 1 · TOR 14 (by 13)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
TOR	6	0	0	7	0	0	0	1	14

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.310	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.094	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
G. LuxLF	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Caminero3B	.304	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. SimpsonLF	.367	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. WilliamsSS	.300	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. DeLucaRF	.270	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.217	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Mccoy1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. VellojinC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Cotes2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Santa Maria3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. PinedaOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Al. RodriguezC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	4	1	1	2	10

Player

.310

.094

.190

.304

.367

.333

.300

.270

.217

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. MartinezSP	3.2	12	11	11	2	0	82
J. KmatzSP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	4
K. CorbettP	0.1	1	2	2	1	0	10
H. BiggeRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	16
C. BooserRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
G. CleavingerRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	23
I. SeymourRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	23
Team	8.0	19	14	14	6	5	173

Player

3.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

173

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.324	3	2	2	3	1	1	0
E. Clement2B	.300	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.444	2	2	2	2	1	1	0
A. BargerRF	.310	4	2	3	1	0	0	0
A. KirkC	.231	3	2	3	3	1	1	0
D. VarshoCF	.380	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Okamoto3B	.316	4	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.265	4	2	2	4	1	0	1
A. GimenezSS	.368	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
E. JimenezDH	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.231	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. HornungOF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. ScannellCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. LukesRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. SchneiderLF	.132	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. StrawRF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.211	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		43	14	19	14	4	6	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. CeaseSP	5.0	3	0	0	2	6	83
S. MilesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
L. VarlandRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	12
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
B. FisherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	4	1	1	2	10	134

Team

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs TB.