Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 22, 2026

FINAL+10ARI

ARI

15-13-1

111

14-15-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

7,297 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs ARI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium
Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium
Walker BuehlerSD
4.5± 1.9medium

Hits

Gabriel MorenoARI
1.2± 0.7high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.2± 1.3medium

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.2± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.1± 2.0high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.5± 3.0low
Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ARI

league avg

.692

OPS

◀

.718

.662

.307

OBP

◀

.319

.297

4.22

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

4.33

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.30

WHIP

1.31

1.30

7.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

ARI 11 · SD 1 (by 10)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ARI	0	1	3	3	0	0	0	4	0	11
SD	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BarrosaCF	.333	4	2	2	1	1	0	1
I. Vargas1B	.378	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
G. MorenoC	.242	4	2	3	2	2	0	0
P. SmithDH	.282	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. WaldschmidtCF	.302	4	1	3	0	0	0	0
B. McLaughlin3B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
Y. Soler3B	.182	4	0	1	1	0	0	3
A. OrtizOF	.250	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
W. ClarkSS	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RobertsOF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Valdez3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
G. ConticelloOF	.300	1	1	1	2	0	0	0
M. Marte1B	.333	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
J. JosephaCF	.400	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. SinzzaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Walters2B	.600	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. LucianoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RodriguezSS	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		42	11	16	11	4	4	11

Player

.333

.378

.242

.282

.302

.333

.182

.250

.125

.000

.000

.300

.333

.400

.000

.600

.000

.143

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. CurtissRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	4	36
B. GarciaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
J. MorilloRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	11
T. RashiRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
S. DubinRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	21
Y. DiazSP	1.2	3	0	0	0	3	39
L. MercadoRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	5	1	1	2	11	144

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

2.0

1.2

0.1

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.235	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
J. MerrillCF	.234	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Machado3B	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Sheets1B	.286	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.259	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Cronenworth2B	.350	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.378	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. LaureanoLF	.263	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. BowenRF	.296	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.298	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Castanon2B	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. BileckiOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.318	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Dungan2B	.269	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. JacksonUN	.111	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.304	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.206	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. RodríguezRF	.278	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	5	1	1	2	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BuehlerSP	3.1	11	7	7	1	3	79
J. YeagerRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	10
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
M. WaldronSP	3.0	3	4	4	3	4	58
R. MarinaccioRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	16	11	11	4	11	173

Team

ARI

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs ARI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs ARI.