
LAD
20-8-1

LAA
16-15
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.3%
ensemble · LAA favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAA win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
MLB Stats API
LAD
league avg
LAA
.784
OPS
.718
.716
.345
OBP
.319
.318
5.27
Runs / G
4.50
4.54
3.43
Team ERA
4.17
4.59
1.11
WHIP
1.31
1.40
9.0
K / 9
8.5
8.9
Postgame · final
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
LAD wins
LAD 13 · LAA 5 (by 8)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| LAA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Final play
“End of the 9th inning”
What's next
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.
Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant
LAD · top performer

James Tibbs III
RF
2-1
AB-H
1
R
1
RBI
LAA · top performer

Jorge Soler
DH
3-2
AB-H
2
R
4
RBI
Biggest swing: 11pp · Top 3rd Inning
MLB · Box scoreADVANCED
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .222 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .231 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .296 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .424 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| .389 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .333 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| .457 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| .348 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| .111 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| .333 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| .423 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .400 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .667 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .200 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .429 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .314 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .000 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Team | 37 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 88 | |
| 0.1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 19 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 19 | |
| 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 16 | |
| 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | |
| 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 8 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 163 |
| Player | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| .211 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .289 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .242 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | |
| .361 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | |
| .160 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .354 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | |
| .190 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .256 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .314 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .303 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .234 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .229 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| .156 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .333 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .364 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| .231 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| .300 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Team | 35 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| Player | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 67 | |
| 0.1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 | |
| 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | |
| 2.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 51 | |
| 2.2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 53 | |
| 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Team | 9.0 | 11 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 213 |
Stat compare
Headline stats · full table below
11
Hits
8
13
Runs
5
1
Errors
0
Team stats
LAD
Away
Stat
LAA
Home
13
Runs
5
11
Hits
8
1
Errors
0
20
TB
15
2
HR
2
9
BB
6
14
K
14
13
LOB
18
Season series
LAD lead series 3-0
How it ended
LAD beat LAA 13-5. J. Tibbs III led the way — 1-for-2 · 1 HR · 2.500 OPS. LAD outscored the other side 10-0 in the 3rd inning.
Last play
End of the 9th inning
Win probability
LAA vs LAD
Clutch moments · top swings
ranked by WP impactSoler · homered to right center (385 feet).
T. Hern · ández homered to right center (405 feet).
Betts · walked, Pages scored, Tucker to second, Ohtani to third.
Linescore (innings)
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| LAA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Period scoring
LAD won 3 · LAA won 2
Inn 1
Inn 2
Soler 1
Inn 3
Hern 3
Inn 4
Inn 5
Inn 6
Smith 1
Soler 3
Inn 7
III 1
Inn 8
Morales 1
Inn 9
Play-by-play · 710 plays
End of the 9th inning
LAD 13·LAA 5
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Gobbel grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Mancini out at second.
· ·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 3 : Ball In Play
· ·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul
· ·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging
· ·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Ronan Kopp pitches to Benjamin Gobbel
· ·
LAD 13·LAA 5
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Mancini singled to center.
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 1 : Ball In Play
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Ronan Kopp pitches to Trey Mancini
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Mancini hit for Walton
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Candelario fouled out to first.
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 2 : Ball In Play
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Ronan Kopp pitches to Jeimer Candelario
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Kopp relieved Knowles
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Bottom of the 9th inning
LAD 13·LAA 5
Middle of the 9th inning
LAD 13·LAA 5
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Tibbs III flied out to center.
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 5 : Ball In Play
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 3 : Ball 2
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Pitch 1 : Ball 1
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Drew Pomeranz pitches to James Tibbs III
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Vargas lined out to center.
·
LAD 13·LAA 5
Recap · MLB
os Angeles Dodgers went into Los Angeles Angels and beat them, 13–5. It was a wire-to-wire rout.
ESPN didn't ship a closing line for this game; book settlement summary unavailable.
ByTheOnemodel/auto-generated · live odds + scouting data/refreshes with the page
Player projections
Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.
130
projections · 93 high confidence
Strikeouts
Hits
Total bases
RBIs
Earned runs
Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands