Cincinnati Reds vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 22, 2026

FINAL+6CLE

CIN

14-15

CLE

14-14-1

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

5,610 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.8± 2.5medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium

Hits

Travis BazzanaCLE
1.1± 1.2high
Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 0.9high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Travis BazzanaCLE
2.0± 3.0high
Sal StewartCIN
1.9± 2.0high
Eugenio SuarezCIN
1.6± 2.7high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
1.1± 2.1high
Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.9± 1.4low
Eugenio SuarezCIN
0.8± 2.0high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.9low
Rhett LowderCIN
2.8± 3.0low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.7± 2.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

CLE

.699

OPS

◀

.718

.676

.310

OBP

.319

.312

4.27

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

4.57

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.76

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

8.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CIN 2 · CLE 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2
CLE	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. BensonRF	.256	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. SteerLF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.268	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. StephensonC	.194	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. MarteRF	.255	2	1	2	1	1	0	0
D. MyersCF	.379	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
P.J. HigginsC	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Hampson2B	.100	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. VuLF	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. VargasSS	.167	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Ibarra1B	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Z. Warren1B	.500	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
W. BanfieldC	.231	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. JorgeCF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. ConfidanLF	.556	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. LewisSS	.353	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Sanchez3B	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		37	2	10	2	1	0	8

Player

.256

.200

.333

.268

.194

.255

.379

.176

.100

.125

.167

.250

.500

.231

.333

.556

.353

.286

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LodoloSP	0.0	1	2	2	1	0	10
G. GreenP	2.0	4	3	3	3	2	49
B. AfthimP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	23
G. AshcraftRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
L. MeyRP	1.0	1	1	0	1	1	26
S. QuigleySP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	13
K. McCoyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	21
Team	8.0	10	8	7	7	7	0

Player

0.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.225	2	2	0	0	0	2	1
A. MartinezLF	.350	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
J. Ramirez3B	.256	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
R. Hoskins1B	.222	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
C. DeLauterRF	.429	2	0	2	2	0	1	0
G. AriasSS	.324	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. NaylorC	.364	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.163	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. RocchioSS	.324	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. AbreuSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. FairchildRF	.231	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Benjamin3B	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. NunezC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Collado1B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Arnold2B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. SilvaLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RivasC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. RomeroSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	8	10	7	2	7	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. WilliamsSP	5.0	5	1	1	0	3	64
M. FestaRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	22
E. SabrowskiRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	10
C. BrogdonRP	1.0	4	1	1	0	2	21
K. AllardRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	10	2	2	0	8	0

Team

CIN

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs CIN.