Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 22, 2026

FINAL+7BAL

WSH

14-10-3

BAL

12-13-3

Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Baltimore, Maryland

8,948 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 101 high confidence

Strikeouts

Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Kyle BradishBAL
6.1± 3.6medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.2± 3.2medium

Hits

Taylor WardBAL
1.1± 1.0high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
1.0± 1.2high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.3± 2.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.9± 2.1high
Gunnar HendersonBAL
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Adley RutschmanBAL
0.9± 1.7high
Pete AlonsoBAL
0.7± 1.0high
Samuel BasalloBAL
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

BAL

.741

OPS

◀

.718

.319

OBP

.319

5.28

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.61

4.69

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.36

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.37

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

WSH 1 · BAL 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
BAL	0	1	1	0	0	3	0	3	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.136	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. MillasC	.185	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.139	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. LileLF	.200	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
B. House3B	.439	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.244	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. YoungCF	.100	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. TenaDH	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.206	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
C. FranklinLF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. LomavitaC	.222	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. TolmanRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. HuffSP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.154	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Chaparro1B	.158	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	1	5	1	1	6	9

Player

.136

.185

.139

.200

.439

.244

.100

.167

.206

.250

.222

.000

.176

.000

.154

.158

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ParkerRP	4.0	5	2	2	0	8	75
J. SinclairRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	22
S. GastonSP	0.1	1	3	3	3	0	27
E. TolmanRP	1.2	0	0	0	1	4	31
C. HuffSP	1.0	1	3	2	0	1	26
Team	8.0	7	8	7	4	16	181

Player

4.0

1.0

0.1

1.2

1.0

Team

8.0

181

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.231	3	1	1	2	1	1	2
A. RutschmanC	.302	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. Alonso1B	.264	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. O'NeillRF	.474	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Mountcastle1B	.317	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. Mayo3B	.389	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. CowserRF	.227	2	1	1	2	1	1	1
L. TaverasCF	.184	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Alexander3B	.250	2	0	0	1	0	0	2
J. BarreroSS	.108	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NoelRF	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Ramos3B	.297	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
J. FabianCF	.067	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. BasalloC	.361	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
L. VazquezSS	.211	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Vasquez3B	.190	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
We. Wilson3B	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Bradfield Jr.CF	.091	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jackson2B	.333	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
Team		31	8	7	8	3	4	16

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BradishSP	5.1	4	0	0	3	3	74
R. GarciaRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	5
J. KowarRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
R. LongSP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	13
R. HelsleyRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	3	30
Team	9.0	5	1	1	6	9	140

Team

WSH

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BAL vs WSH.