New York Mets vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+2WSH

NYM

12-11-2

WSH

14-9-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

3,742 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs NYM.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Christian ScottNYM
5.3± 2.9low

Hits

Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high
Juan SotoNYM
1.2± 0.9high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Carson BengeNYM
1.8± 1.4high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.6± 0.9high
Mark VientosNYM
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.4± 3.0low
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
2.8± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYM

league avg

WSH

.675

OPS

.718

▶

.741

.300

OBP

.319

▶

.319

4.04

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.28

4.12

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.69

1.28

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

NYM 1 · WSH 3 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1
WSH	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. BengeRF	.368	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Vientos1B	.057	4	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. Young1B	.150	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. TorrensC	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. TaylorCF	.265	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. BrujanSS	.273	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. Reimer3B	.263	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. PacheOF	.419	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. HernándezSS	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BayRF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Collins1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. SengerC	.227	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. CuevasOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Roselli2B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	1	5	1	1	1	8

Player

.368

.057

.150

.273

.265

.273

.263

.419

.000

.500

.000

.227

.000

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SuarezSP	4.0	1	0	0	1	3	47
W. WatsonRP	3.1	2	0	0	0	2	40
M. TurnerRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	14
D. HawkinsRP	0.0	1	1	1	0	0	5
Team	8.1	7	3	3	1	6	106

Player

4.0

3.1

1.0

0.0

Team

8.1

106

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Nunez2B	.219	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. TenaDH	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. RuizC	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.156	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Chaparro1B	.162	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.154	4	1	1	2	1	0	1
C. FranklinLF	.258	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. KingSS	.368	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
S. PetersenCF	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. BrownSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. PichardoSS	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. BarreraC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. TavarezC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Rojas3B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
L. PinedaRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. Brown1B	.182	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	3	7	3	1	1	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CavalliSP	5.0	3	0	0	0	1	71
P. PoulinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	21
C. BeeterRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	16
G. VarlandRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	12
A. GranilloRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	8	137

Team

NYM

WSH

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs NYM.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

WSH vs NYM.