Minnesota Twins vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+1TB

MIN

8-18-1

10-16-1

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

3,687 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

.734

OPS

.718

.730

.322

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.52

4.86

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.78

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.20

8.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TB wins

MIN 2 · TB 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2
TB	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Clemens1B	.294	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. Keaschall2B	.362	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. WallnerRF	.333	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. BellDH	.300	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OutmanCF	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lewis3B	.111	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. RodenLF	.310	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. JeffersC	.195	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
B. LeeSS	.292	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.056	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. GraySS	.216	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Doncon3B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BanuelosC	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HoughtonCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Rucker2B	.111	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. HessOF	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HernandezLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Salas2B	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	2	6	2	2	0	3

Player

.294

.362

.333

.300

.200

.111

.310

.195

.292

.056

.216

.333

.308

.000

.111

1.000

.000

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. RyanSP	5.0	3	1	1	1	2	59
E. OrzeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	13
D. AltavillaRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	17
C. LawerysonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	8.0	5	3	3	2	4	99

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.308	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Aranda1B	.333	3	1	2	1	1	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.233	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Caminero3B	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. FraleyRF	.320	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. MullinsCF	.259	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
B. Williamson2B	.325	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. SimpsonLF	.370	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
N. FortesC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Simpson1B	.417	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. PalmaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Monzon3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. AybarOF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. DatilOF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GonzalezSS	1.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezOF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. FeducciaC	.103	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	3	5	3	2	2	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BaumeisterP	4.1	2	1	1	0	1	43
G. JaxRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SulserRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	2	31
M. NicholsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
T. MccollumRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	5
Team	9.0	6	2	2	0	3	90

Team

MIN

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs MIN.