Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+3STL

MIA

10-13-3

STL

16-9-2

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

4,767 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 85 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Otto LopezMIA
1.8± 1.8high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Eury PerezMIA
2.5± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

STL

.711

OPS

.718

.717

.323

OBP

.319

.324

4.27

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.47

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.26

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.35

8.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

MIA 4 · STL 7 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
STL	4	0	1	0	0	1	0	1	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarseeCF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. Edwards2B	.194	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
A. RamirezC	.091	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
L. HicksC	.286	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.292	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
G. ConineLF	.231	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
C. Norby1B	.310	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. Morel1B	.150	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Faurot2B	.333	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
E. BoydLF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. CappeSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
MccutcheonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. OrtegaC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. GreenSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jenkins-CowartOF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CruzRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Bullard3B	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		36	4	9	4	2	1	7

Player

.250

.194

.091

.286

.292

.231

.310

.150

.333

.200

.500

.000

.000

.000

.333

.000

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. JunkSP	3.0	7	5	4	1	1	50
J. KingRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18
J. EknessRP	2.0	1	1	1	0	1	29
J. RalstonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	15
Z. BrzykcyRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	16
Team	8.0	10	7	5	3	5	128

Player

3.0

1.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

128

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
V. Scott IICF	.176	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. WinnSS	.139	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. Burleson1B	.343	4	1	2	2	0	0	0
N. Gorman3B	.256	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
N. VelazquezLF	.357	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
T. SaggeseLF	.316	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
J. FerminLF	.146	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.129	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Mendoza2B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Y. PozoC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Moore2B	.176	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Ortiz3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. FloresSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SuarezRF	.750	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. ChoRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MitchellSS	.000	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. YerzyC	.176	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. EncarnacionSS	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	7	10	6	1	3	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. MolinaSP	3.2	5	4	4	1	3	67
S. HalesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
D. PiconeRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	1	8
M. PushardRP	2.0	3	0	0	0	2	23
P. NaughtonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	5
M. RajcicRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	16
Team	9.0	9	4	4	1	7	129

Team

MIA

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

STL vs MIA.