Chicago Cubs vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+6CHC

CHC

12-16

SEA

10-18-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

11,029 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 3.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.9high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.4high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Carson KellyCHC
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 3.4medium
Colin ReaCHC
2.8± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

SEA

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.695

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.313

4.92

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.02

4.24

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.72

1.25

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHC wins

CHC 7 · SEA 1 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	3	0	7
SEA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ShawRF	.333	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. BallesterosDH	.333	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
M. AmayaC	.308	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.273	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.289	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CarlsonLF	.341	3	1	2	1	1	0	1
J. Long1B	.333	4	2	3	0	0	0	0
O. Miller2B	.267	2	2	1	0	0	2	1
B. Cowles3B	.308	4	0	2	3	0	0	1
M. Halbach3B	.400	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. MaderaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. OpitzC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DelgadoLF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. LovichCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Le. EspinozaCF	.444	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		39	7	15	7	1	3	8

Player

.333

.333

.308

.273

.289

.341

.333

.267

.308

.400

.000

.000

.200

.000

.444

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. ReaSP	4.0	4	1	0	2	4	77
C. SniderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
C. MartinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
E. TaylorRP	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	22
V. ReillyP	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	17
Team	9.0	5	1	0	3	11	143

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.2

Team

9.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.429	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RaleighC	.231	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RodriguezCF	.421	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Naylor1B	.179	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
R. ArozarenaLF	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. RefsnyderDH	.154	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
L. RaleyRF	.279	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Bliss2B	.211	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.302	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Hood2B	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. StevensonC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JoeRF	.362	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. DavisLF	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Rivas3B	.231	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		29	1	5	0	0	3	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. KirbySP	5.1	6	1	1	2	4	78
G. SpeierRP	0.2	4	3	3	0	1	19
E. BazardoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	11
Y. ZuluetaRP	0.0	4	3	3	1	0	21
M. RuckerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
C. WilcoxRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
Team	9.0	15	7	7	3	8	150

Team

CHC

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs CHC.