Cleveland Guardians vs San Francisco Giants: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+3SF

CLE

13-14-1

710

19-9-1

Scottsdale Stadium · Scottsdale, Arizona

8,310 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SF favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SF win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SF vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium
Landen RouppSF
5.9± 1.8medium

Hits

Casey SchmittSF
1.4± 1.0high
Luis ArraezSF
1.2± 0.9high
Heliot RamosSF
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Rafael DeversSF
2.2± 2.7high
Casey SchmittSF
2.0± 2.3high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.9± 3.1high

RBIs

Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.9± 1.4low
Cooper IngleCLE
0.7± 1.6low
Travis BazzanaCLE
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Tyler MahleSF
3.1± 4.0low
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium
Trevor McDonaldSF
2.8± 2.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

.676

OPS

.718

▶

.725

.312

OBP

◀

.319

.308

3.94

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.06

3.76

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.31

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.36

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SF wins

CLE 7 · SF 10 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	0	1	5	0	0	1	7
SF	0	0	3	4	1	0	2	0	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. SchneemannCF	.265	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. FryRF	.121	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.152	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
S. FairchildRF	.208	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. NaylorC	.368	3	1	2	1	0	2	0
C. KayfusLF	.216	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. MooneySS	.286	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. Bazzana2B	.381	4	2	3	5	2	0	1
M. TolentinoSS	.182	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. PirelaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. NunezC	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MartinezUN	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. LaVioletteOF	.333	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
J. LampeCF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	7	10	7	3	3	11

Player

.265

.121

.152

.208

.368

.216

.286

.381

.182

.000

.273

.000

.333

.231

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. BibeeSP	4.2	10	8	8	0	3	70
L. McGuireRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	9
C. SmithRP	1.2	2	2	2	0	0	21
T. HerrinRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	10
S. ArmstrongRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	8.0	14	10	10	0	4	116

Player

4.2

0.1

1.2

0.2

0.2

Team

8.0

116

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LeeRF	.455	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
M. Chapman3B	.405	3	1	1	2	0	0	0
R. Devers1B	.172	4	1	3	1	0	0	0
H. RamosLF	.409	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. Arraez2B	.353	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
W. AdamesSS	.136	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
P. BaileyC	.286	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. OlivaCF	.375	3	2	2	3	1	0	0
J. EncarnacionRF	.294	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GilbertCF	.265	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. KilenSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CoxCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
W. BrennanLF	.325	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
C. Koss2B	.366	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. SchmittLF	.298	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BravoLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SusacC	.350	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
V. BericotoRF	.419	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. MatosRF	.260	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CroesOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	10	14	10	2	0	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. RaySP	5.0	3	1	1	2	6	86
T. McDonaldSP	0.2	4	5	5	0	2	27
U. MejiasRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. LucchesiRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
E. MillerRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
M. WhiteRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	21
Team	9.0	10	7	7	3	11	164

Team

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SF vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SF vs CLE.