San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+5MIL

14-14-1

MIL

12-15

American Family Fields of Phoenix · Phoenix, Arizona

6,279 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIL vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.9medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.5± 3.8medium
Robert GasserMIL
5.2± 2.2low

Hits

William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.5high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.2± 1.3medium

Total bases

Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.9± 1.4high
William ContrerasMIL
1.9± 2.8high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high
William ContrerasMIL
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0medium
Randy VasquezSD
2.7± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

MIL

.662

OPS

.718

▶

.730

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.337

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.16

3.89

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.18

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIL wins

SD 1 · MIL 6 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
MIL	0	0	0	3	0	1	2	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BowenRF	.283	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. VerdugoLF	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. France1B	.319	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. CastellanosRF	.209	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.304	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.237	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. DuranC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. RodríguezRF	.278	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. McCoy2B	.171	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
K. RobertsCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. KingC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Dungan2B	.240	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Castanon2B	.316	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Acuna3B	.207	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
H. VilarC	.231	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MearsRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Mondou2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. MurphyLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	6	1	1	3	10

Player

.283

.200

.319

.209

.304

.237

.250

.278

.171

.000

.000

.240

.316

.207

.231

.000

.333

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. VasquezSP	5.1	5	4	4	0	4	74
D. MorganRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	6
M. MillerRP	0.2	2	2	1	0	0	18
A. MorejonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
R. MarinaccioRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
Team	8.0	8	6	5	0	6	113

Player

5.1

0.2

0.2

1.0

0.1

Team

8.0

113

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Turang2B	.278	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. ChourioLF	.320	3	2	2	1	1	0	0
W. ContrerasC	.333	3	1	3	2	1	0	0
J. Bauers1B	.471	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. Vaughn1B	.372	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. MitchellCF	.063	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OrtizSS	.387	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. LockridgeLF	.317	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. Hamilton3B	.298	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. O'RaeCF	.167	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
B. PayneOF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WoodC	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Burke1B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GuilarteSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RagsdaleOF	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. EbelSS	.273	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. HurtubiseLF	.222	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. Fischer3B	.333	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		31	6	8	6	3	0	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. GasserSP	6.0	5	0	0	1	7	79
D. HallRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
A. AshbyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	23
E. McGeeSP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	15
Team	9.0	6	1	1	3	10	128

Team

MIL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIL vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIL vs SD.