Colorado Rockies vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+1KC

COL

13-14-1

9-19-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

5,265 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium
Michael WachaKC
4.9± 2.3medium
Kyle FreelandCOL
4.3± 2.0medium

Hits

TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.3± 0.8high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Jake McCarthyCOL
2.3± 2.3high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.9high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium
Sean SullivanCOL
3.7± 5.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.707

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.61

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

5.47

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.83

1.51

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.43

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

KC wins

COL 5 · KC 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	1	0	5
KC	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	2	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Ritter2B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
W. Castro2B	.550	3	0	1	2	0	0	2
K. Karros3B	.385	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BeckLF	.298	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. SullivanC	.378	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
T. JohnstonRF	.347	3	1	2	1	0	0	0
C. Stevens2B	.200	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
N. Lopez2B	.268	3	2	2	0	0	1	0
C. CapelLF	.286	3	1	2	0	0	1	1
B. MontgomeryCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. FitzerUN	.500	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. TorresSS	.333	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Hopfe1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CordovaC	.667	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. HillRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. VillarSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	5	11	3	0	4	10

Player

.333

.550

.385

.298

.378

.347

.200

.268

.286

.167

.500

.333

.000

.667

.333

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. FreelandSP	4.0	4	0	0	1	2	63
S. HalvorsenRP	1.0	0	1	1	1	1	21
V. VodnikRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	21
P. WeigelRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	11
E. ShawverRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	21
M. GreenRP	0.2	3	2	2	0	0	18
Team	8.2	10	6	6	4	6	155

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.2

Team

8.2

155

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Garcia3B	.353	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Witt Jr.SS	.350	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. ThomasCF	.275	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
S. MarteRF	.294	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. JensenC	.231	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Newman3B	.244	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Rojas3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Tolbert2B	.200	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
K. IsbelCF	.303	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. Toro1B	.300	3	1	1	1	0	0	2
B. Drury2B	.158	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MartinRF	.250	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
N. Loftin2B	.300	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
O. HernandezC	.167	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. WatersLF	.200	2	0	0	1	0	0	1
B. SquiresOF	.263	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
D. VazquezSS	.258	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. PinedaSS	.250	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	10	5	1	4	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. RagansSP	5.1	7	3	3	2	8	86
C. MonkeRP	0.1	1	1	1	2	0	15
J. SchreiberRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	13
N. MearsRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	13
L. ErcegRP	1.0	2	1	0	0	0	19
B. WayRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	11	5	4	4	10	156

Team

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs COL.