Chicago White Sox vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+4CIN

CHW

15-14-1

711

CIN

14-14

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

5,060 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 86 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium
Davis MartinCHW
5.7± 3.0medium

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Chase MeidrothCHW
1.0± 1.3high
Miguel VargasCHW
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 2.6high
Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.7± 1.6high

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.9low
Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.9low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

CIN

.738

OPS

◀

.718

.699

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.78

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.27

4.25

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.57

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

8.4

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CHW 7 · CIN 11 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	0	2	0	2	1	0	0	2	0	7
CIN	1	0	0	1	5	0	0	0	4	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.265	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. MontgomerySS	.180	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. Vargas3B	.280	4	0	0	1	0	0	1
M. Murakami1B	.333	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. HaysLF	.360	4	2	2	0	0	0	0
A. BenintendiDH	.278	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
E. PereiraRF	.286	3	1	2	4	1	1	0
E. QueroC	.300	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
L. AcunaCF	.425	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BurkeCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Weber2B	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Galanie1B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SprinkleSS	.167	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
D. LoganRF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Matthews2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CoronaC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Camilletti2B	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		38	7	9	7	1	1	8

Player

.265

.180

.280

.333

.360

.278

.286

.300

.425

.000

.250

.143

.167

.000

.000

.000

.188

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. PaezSP	2.2	3	1	1	2	0	50
S. NewcombRP	2.0	4	5	5	1	2	40
N. AltermattRP	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7
S. DominguezRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	3	25
J. PalischRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	1	27
F. AriasSP	0.2	2	4	4	1	1	27
Team	8.2	11	11	11	7	8	0

Player

2.2

2.0

0.1

1.0

2.0

0.2

Team

8.2

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FriedlCF	.317	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
M. McLain2B	.529	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. De La CruzSS	.283	2	0	1	2	0	1	0
S. Stewart1B	.357	3	1	1	1	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.176	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
N. MarteRF	.224	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. TrevinoC	.333	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
W. BensonRF	.250	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
K. Hayes3B	.194	1	0	0	0	0	2	0
I. Johnson2B	.375	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Hampson2B	.079	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. VargasSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. LoweDH	.289	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
Y. SorianoCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
R. Ibarra1B	.143	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. MarianoSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
E. PinedaRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. BanfieldC	.208	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. HendrickRF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
P.J. HigginsC	.188	1	1	1	4	1	1	0
Team		36	11	11	10	3	7	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. AbbottSP	4.2	4	5	3	1	5	84
G. RomanoRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	10
P. JohnsonRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	11
T. SantillanRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	9
S. MollRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	15
C. PhillipsRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	9	7	5	1	8	0

Team

CHW

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs CHW.