Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+5ATL

ATL

19-6-2

BOS

12-14

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

9,422 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 3.1medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Caleb DurbinBOS
1.3± 0.8high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Caleb DurbinBOS
2.1± 2.1high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Matt OlsonATL
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high
Caleb DurbinBOS
0.6± 0.8high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.1± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

BOS

.720

OPS

◀

.718

.697

.311

OBP

.319

.312

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.70

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.24

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

ATL 6 · BOS 1 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	1	3	0	2	0	0	0	0	6
BOS	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. WhiteRF	.400	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
O. Albies2B	.214	4	2	1	1	0	0	0
M. Olson1B	.311	4	2	3	1	0	0	1
A. Riley3B	.395	4	1	3	4	1	0	0
J. HeimC	.160	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. FarmerDH	.359	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. Harris IICF	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. DubonSS	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. AzocarRF	.308	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. MaciasOF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. ConleySS	.357	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Compton1B	.133	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JonesSS	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Wisely2B	.345	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Kilpatrick Jr.CF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	10	6	1	2	5

Player

.400

.214

.311

.395

.160

.359

.286

.300

.308

.333

.357

.133

.167

.345

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. SaleSP	6.0	2	1	1	1	4	86
T. KinleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	22
D. LeeRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
F. McdonoughRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20
Team	9.0	4	1	1	2	8	142

Player

6.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

142

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. AnthonyLF	.261	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
T. StorySS	.375	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Contreras1B	.450	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.400	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Durbin3B	.357	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.314	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. AbreuRF	.118	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.342	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RosierRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. GasperC	.346	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. EatonOF	.310	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Liendo2B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. Capra3B	.069	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. WardCF	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. WhiteSS	1.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. SikesCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.074	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	4	1	0	2	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. CrochetSP	5.1	6	6	6	2	3	89
T. SamaniegoRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	7
G. WeissertRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	21
T. KahnleRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. AndersonRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	15
Team	9.0	10	6	6	2	5	144

Team

ATL

BOS

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs ATL.