Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+2BAL

PHI

10-15-2

810

BAL

11-13-3

Ed Smith Stadium · Sarasota, Florida

7,816 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · BAL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BAL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BAL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.1± 2.5low

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Trea TurnerPHI
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
J.T. RealmutoPHI
0.9± 1.4high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

BAL

.701

OPS

.718

▶

.718

.301

OBP

.319

▶

.319

4.38

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.61

4.08

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.36

1.30

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.37

9.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.1

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

PHI 8 · BAL 10 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	0	3	0	0	2	0	2	8
BAL	1	0	1	1	0	5	2	0	10

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.140	3	1	1	0	0	1	2
B. Stott2B	.359	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
O. KempLF	.240	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.162	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. De La CruzOF	.333	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
R. MarchanC	.219	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
G. StubbsC	.217	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. PegueroSS	.143	4	0	1	2	0	0	1
C. CairoSS	.200	4	1	1	1	0	0	3
T. Farquhar2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Moore2B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. McIntoshC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. FergusLF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MurrLF	.400	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
B. Ware2B	.000	0	2	0	0	0	1	0
B. DaySS	.000	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
A. Binelas1B	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. BritoSS	.333	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
Team		36	8	9	8	0	8	9

Player

.140

.359

.240

.162

.333

.219

.217

.143

.200

.000

.400

.250

.333

.400

.000

.000

.250

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. CusickSP	2.1	3	2	2	2	1	63
J. EstanistaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	15
C. ShugartRP	1.2	2	1	1	2	1	41
L. TorresSP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	9
J. HernándezRP	0.1	3	5	5	2	1	33
C. PeluseRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	6
L. TrivinoRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	28
E. GatesRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	8.0	11	10	10	7	5	204

Player

2.1

0.2

1.2

0.1

0.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

204

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. HendersonSS	.217	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.275	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. RutschmanC	.308	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
T. O'NeillRF	.500	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
R. Mountcastle1B	.308	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CowserRF	.214	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Alexander3B	.265	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Jackson2B	.313	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
E. Bradfield Jr.CF	.091	0	1	0	0	0	2	0
M. HernandezSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. Figueroa1B	.500	1	1	1	2	0	1	0
S. HuffC	.160	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. NoelRF	.381	2	1	1	4	1	1	0
M. HandleyC	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. FabianCF	.071	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. Vasquez3B	.190	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Lo ReSS	.667	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
We. Wilson3B	.250	1	2	1	1	0	0	0
Team		34	10	11	9	1	7	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. WellsP	3.1	5	4	4	3	4	77
B. VespiSP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	16
Y. HiraldoRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17
T. WellsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13
S. DiederichRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	26
J. CraveyRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	24
C. RustadRP	1.0	1	2	1	2	0	23
Team	9.0	9	8	7	8	9	196

Team

PHI

BAL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

BAL vs PHI.