Texas Rangers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 21, 2026

FINAL+3ARI

TEX

16-12

ARI

14-13-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

9,605 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 96 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.8high
Ketel MarteARI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.1high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Jacob deGromTEX
2.6± 2.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

ARI

.711

OPS

◀

.718

.692

.320

OBP

◀

.319

.307

4.05

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.22

3.96

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.33

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

TEX 2 · ARI 5 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2
ARI	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	1	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. HaggertyLF	.316	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. HigashiokaC	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. McCutchenDH	.444	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. DuranSS	.302	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. CanhaLF	.300	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Wade2B	.429	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. OsunaLF	.313	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. HelmanCF	.233	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. Foscue2B	.308	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
R. MartinSS	.308	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. VelazquezSS	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. HerreraC	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. MacIverC	.150	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Pratto1B	.176	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. CauleySS	.300	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
T. HauverRF	.750	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.179	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. ZavalaLF	.480	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
D. BlancoCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	2	8	2	0	2	13

Player

.316

.286

.444

.302

.300

.429

.313

.233

.308

.308

.111

.273

.150

.176

.300

.750

.179

.480

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BeeksRP	1.1	2	1	1	1	0	14
M. ThompsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. GomberSP	4.2	5	3	3	2	2	76
C. WinnRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	17
P. GrayRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	29
Team	8.0	9	5	5	6	4	138

Player

1.1

0.1

4.2

0.2

1.0

Team

8.0

138

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.235	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
A. ThomasCF	.370	2	1	1	3	1	1	1
G. PerdomoSS	.364	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Arenado3B	.400	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. Santana1B	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. McCannC	.176	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.318	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. LawlarLF	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.316	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. HurleyCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. JosephaCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. LoganC	.556	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. Counsell2B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Ó. MercadoRF	.242	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Vargas1B	.390	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
J. Walters2B	.500	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. AmayaSS	.341	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
P. SmithDH	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		30	5	9	5	2	6	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. NelsonSP	5.0	4	0	0	0	7	71
T. ClarkeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
P. SewaldRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
I. CampbellRP	1.0	2	2	2	2	1	22
S. GiestingSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
Team	9.0	8	2	2	2	13	136

Team

TEX

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs TEX.