Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+6COL

COL

13-13-1

14-13-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

6,184 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs COL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium
Walker BuehlerSD
4.5± 1.9medium
Yu DarvishSD
4.5± 2.0medium

Hits

TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.3± 0.8high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.3± 2.3high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.1± 3.8high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium
Sean SullivanCOL
3.7± 5.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

COL

league avg

.739

OPS

◀

.718

.662

.324

OBP

◀

.319

.297

4.61

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

5.47

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.51

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

7.2

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

COL wins

COL 9 · SD 3 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
COL	0	0	1	3	1	0	0	3	1	9
SD	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McCarthyCF	.354	5	0	3	0	0	0	1
H. GoodmanC	.186	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
M. MoniakLF	.219	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. TovarSS	.250	4	1	2	1	1	0	1
T. Rumfield1B	.286	5	1	1	1	0	0	0
B. DoyleCF	.375	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
B. FulfordDH	.270	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. Julien2B	.238	2	1	1	1	0	2	1
C. Stevens2B	.194	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. MushinskiRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. MillerRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Hopfe1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MontgomeryCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JorgeSS	.400	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
R. CalazOF	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. BetancourtC	.250	1	1	1	3	1	0	0
T. Tucker2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. PerezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		39	9	14	7	3	3	8

Player

.354

.186

.219

.250

.286

.375

.270

.238

.194

.000

.000

.000

.200

.400

.167

.250

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MejiaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
A. SenzatelaRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	20
B. BernardinoRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	17
V. BellozoRP	3.0	1	1	1	1	2	53
P. MushinskiRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	15
R. MillerRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
Team	9.0	4	3	3	2	7	121

Player

1.0

2.0

1.0

3.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

121

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Cronenworth2B	.359	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.267	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MerrillCF	.244	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Machado3B	.154	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
G. Sheets1B	.256	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.292	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.244	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
N. CastellanosRF	.220	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. FerminC	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. ReyesOF	.323	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. RodríguezRF	.294	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. DuranC	.286	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. Dungan2B	.240	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. VerdugoLF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. Castanon2B	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. Acuna3B	.179	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MearsRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	4	3	1	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. PivettaSP	4.0	8	5	4	1	3	71
B. RodriguezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	9
J. AdamRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
J. EstradaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16
M. TamarezRP	0.1	3	3	3	1	1	23
B. SalazarRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	10
M. CastroRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	18
Team	9.0	14	9	8	3	8	159

Team

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs COL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs COL.