Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+1TOR

TOR

11-13-2

MIN

8-17-1

Lee Health Sports Complex · Fort Myers, Florida

8,361 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIN vs TOR.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Taj BradleyMIN
5.8± 2.1medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Brooks LeeMIN
1.1± 1.2high
Byron BuxtonMIN
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TOR

league avg

MIN

.701

OPS

.718

▶

.734

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.322

4.08

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.85

4.16

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.86

1.33

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

TOR 2 · MIN 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TOR	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. StrawRF	.206	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. LukesRF	.333	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.244	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
D. SchneiderLF	.139	4	0	2	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.300	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.217	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. Keys3B	.194	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
A. NimmalaSS	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. KasevichSS	.306	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
R. SchreckLF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.355	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. StubbsC	.273	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. McAdoo2B	.194	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CunninghamOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RiveraSS	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BohrofenOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. WardRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	2	10	2	0	2	6

Player

.206

.333

.244

.139

.300

.217

.194

.250

.306

.143

.355

.273

.194

.000

.211

.000

.250

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ScherzerSP	5.0	2	0	0	2	3	73
J. MantiplyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	12
C. LeeRP	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	19
L. EstradaRP	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	33
Team	9.0	6	1	1	2	5	137

Player

5.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

Team

9.0

137

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BuxtonCF	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. LarnachLF	.158	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. LeeSS	.311	2	0	2	0	0	1	0
R. JeffersC	.184	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	.263	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
O. ArciaSS	.179	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.135	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Urshela3B	.192	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.059	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. McCombsRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. KendleOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. CardenasC	.313	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. DaughertyC	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. RossSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. GenthSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BassRF	1.000	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Y. HerreraSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. FragozaOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Dominguez2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	6	1	0	2	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. Woods RichardsonSP	5.0	9	2	2	1	3	85
J. TopaRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	16
A. BandaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
T. RogersRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	25
C. SandsRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Z. KentRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
Team	9.0	10	2	2	2	6	144

Team

TOR

MIN

3 sub-models, blended.

MIN vs TOR.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIN vs TOR.