Washington Nationals vs Miami Marlins: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+1MIA

WSH

13-9-3

MIA

10-12-3

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

2,645 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · MIA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(MIA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

MIA vs WSH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Dylan CrewsWSH
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Otto LopezMIA
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Eury PerezMIA
2.5± 2.6low
Zack LittellWSH
2.4± 1.7medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

WSH

league avg

MIA

.741

OPS

◀

.718

.711

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.323

5.28

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.27

4.69

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.94

1.39

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

WSH 2 · MIA 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
WSH	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
MIA	1	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. WoodRF	.125	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. YoungCF	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. LileLF	.171	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Chaparro1B	.182	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. House3B	.447	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. AbramsSS	.243	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
C. FranklinLF	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MillasC	.208	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. TenaDH	.188	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WiemerRF	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Garcia Jr.1B	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Nunez2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. CruzSS	.400	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. BarreraC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	5	2	0	2	9

Player

.125

.125

.171

.182

.447

.243

.241

.208

.188

.143

.143

.200

.400

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
F. GriffinSP	5.0	5	3	3	2	5	78
C. PerezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
D. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
O. RibaltaRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	19
Team	8.0	6	3	3	3	8	122

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

122

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Sanoja3B	.231	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
A. RamirezC	.053	2	2	1	1	0	1	1
G. ConineLF	.194	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Morel1B	.154	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
O. CaissieRF	.154	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
E. RuizRF	.129	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. AldermanRF	.148	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JaworskySS	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. OlmsteadSS	.059	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. Jasso1B	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Beshears1B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. JonesCF	.267	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. BoydLF	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
G. Forrester3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. HeadCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	3	6	3	0	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PaddackSP	4.0	2	1	1	0	3	51
A. BenderRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	17
A. NardiRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	23
T. PhillipsRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	24
P. FairbanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	16
C. FaucherRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
Team	9.0	5	2	2	2	9	140

Team

WSH

MIA

—

3 sub-models, blended.

MIA vs WSH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

MIA vs WSH.