San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+1LAD

14-12-1

LAD

19-8

Camelback Ranch - Glendale · Phoenix, Arizona

12,708 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · LAD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(LAD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

LAD vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.7medium
Roki SasakiLAD
5.4± 3.1low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.3± 2.8medium

Hits

Mookie BettsLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Freddie FreemanLAD
1.2± 1.2high
Tommy EdmanLAD
1.2± 1.5low

Total bases

Mookie BettsLAD
2.4± 2.5high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.1± 1.9high
Shohei OhtaniLAD
2.0± 1.6high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Mookie BettsLAD
0.8± 1.0high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.7± 1.8medium
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

LAD

.662

OPS

.718

▶

.784

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.345

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.27

3.89

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.43

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.11

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

SD 3 · LAD 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	3
LAD	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. BowenRF	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. JohnsonRF	.304	3	2	1	0	0	1	2
R. LaureanoLF	.286	2	1	1	2	1	1	1
T. France1B	.318	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. CampusanoC	.188	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
N. Solak1B	.341	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. SchnellRF	.250	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
J. Miranda3B	.302	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. McCoy2B	.154	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. MurphyLF	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. MccoyOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	3	6	3	1	3	12

Player

.280

.304

.286

.318

.188

.341

.250

.302

.154

.500

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GonzalesSP	3.2	4	1	1	2	4	83
A. JacobRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	1	26
L. GillaspieRP	3.2	4	1	1	3	3	63
Team	8.0	10	4	4	6	8	172

Player

M. GonzalesSP

3.2

A. JacobRP

0.2

L. GillaspieRP

3.2

Team

8.0

172

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. OhtaniDH	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. TuckerRF	.261	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. BettsSS	.292	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
F. Freeman1B	.419	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
W. SmithC	.429	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
T. HernándezLF	.452	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
M. Muncy3B	.333	1	0	1	1	0	2	0
A. PagesCF	.341	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. RojasSS	.357	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
K. MyersOF	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. SirotaCF	.286	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. QuinteroCF	.500	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
C. DavalanOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. AlfonzoC	.219	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Nevin3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Wagner3B	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Gelof3B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. McLainSS	.167	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	4	10	4	0	6	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. YamamotoSP	5.0	3	0	0	1	7	68
E. DiazRP	0.2	2	2	2	0	0	10
C. CamposSP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
J. DreyerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
A. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
E. ShawRP	1.0	1	1	1	2	2	26
Team	9.0	6	3	3	3	12	127

Team

LAD

—

3 sub-models, blended.

LAD vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

LAD vs SD.