Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+3MIA

MIA

9-12-3

HOU

10-13-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

2,693 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · HOU favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(HOU win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

HOU vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

HOU

.711

OPS

.718

▶

.726

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.316

4.27

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.50

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.74

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.40

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 7 · HOU 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	3	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	7
HOU	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MarseeCF	.308	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
X. Edwards2B	.152	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. LopezSS	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. StowersLF	.231	2	1	2	0	0	0	0
H. HernandezLF	.226	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
L. HicksC	.353	2	1	1	1	0	1	0
C. Norby1B	.300	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
N. Martorella1B	.111	3	0	1	1	0	1	1
J. MatheusSS	.000	2	0	0	1	0	2	1
C. CannarellaOF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JohnsonSS	.167	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. BarrerasSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. TrimbleOF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
E. Rataczak1B	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. CaskenetteC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. LewisOF	.267	1	1	1	4	1	0	0
Team		32	7	6	7	1	8	11

Player

.308

.152

.286

.231

.226

.353

.300

.111

.000

.333

.167

.000

.000

.333

.000

.267

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. PerezSP	5.0	4	2	2	1	5	81
C. GibsonRP	0.2	3	2	2	1	1	31
D. StanavichRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. BacharRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	17
M. PetersenRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	29
S. JonesRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	21
Team	9.0	9	4	4	4	9	180

Player

5.0

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

180

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.135	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
Y. AlvarezDH	.267	3	1	0	0	0	0	2
C. CorreaSS	.292	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.351	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
B. MatthewsCF	.257	2	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. MeyersCF	.133	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. PérezC	.150	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
N. AllenSS	.194	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SalazarC	.182	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. TrammellCF	.257	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Biggio1B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Whitcomb3B	.263	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
C. CallUN	.250	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. WakefieldRF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Unroe2B	.296	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Biggers2B	.087	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. VazquezC	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	4	9	4	0	4	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
H. BrownSP	4.0	4	3	3	3	6	83
A. ChirinosRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	9
B. KingRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. AbreuRP	1.0	0	0	0	3	1	27
L. VanWeyRP	1.0	2	4	4	1	2	31
E. De Los SantosRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	11
C. RoaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	17
Team	9.0	6	7	7	8	11	180

Team

MIA

HOU

3 sub-models, blended.

HOU vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

HOU vs MIA.