Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+2CIN

CIN

13-14

CHC

11-15

Sloan Park · Mesa, Arizona

11,878 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CHC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHC vs CIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 2.8medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 3.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.9high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.4high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 3.4medium
Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.9low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CIN

league avg

CHC

.699

OPS

.718

▶

.736

.310

OBP

.319

▶

.335

4.27

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.92

4.57

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.24

1.46

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.25

8.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CIN wins

CIN 8 · CHC 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CIN	0	2	3	0	3	0	0	0	0	8
CHC	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	1	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TrevinoC	.303	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. McLain2B	.542	4	1	2	3	1	0	1
E. De La CruzSS	.273	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.359	3	2	2	0	0	0	0
E. SuarezDH	.200	2	1	1	1	0	1	1
S. SteerLF	.214	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
T. StephensonC	.176	3	1	1	1	1	0	2
N. MarteRF	.239	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MyersCF	.423	3	1	3	0	0	0	0
A. DunoC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
H. Jimenez3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Hampson2B	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. LoweDH	.270	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. LewisSS	.400	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
W. BensonRF	.243	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
P.J. HigginsC	.161	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. HindsRF	.410	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. BledayLF	.317	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		41	8	14	7	3	2	10

Player

.303

.542

.273

.359

.200

.214

.176

.239

.423

.200

.250

.083

.270

.400

.243

.161

.410

.317

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. WilliamsonSP	5.1	6	1	1	1	2	75
T. AntoneRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
K. NicolasRP	0.2	0	1	1	4	0	31
J. GarciaRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
B. BurkeRP	1.0	3	3	3	0	1	22
Z. MaxwellRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	21
Team	9.0	11	6	6	6	5	159

Player

5.1

0.2

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

159

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. Crow-ArmstrongCF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Bregman3B	.429	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. HappLF	.188	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. SwansonSS	.310	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
C. KellyC	.364	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. BallesterosDH	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. ShawRF	.341	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Triantos2B	.257	3	1	2	2	1	1	0
J. RojasSS	.250	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
P. Ramirez2B	.367	2	1	1	1	0	0	0
K. SnellLF	.375	1	0	1	1	0	1	0
T. SouthiseneSS	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
E. Alvarez1B	.250	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. TriceC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. LovichCF	.000	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. Bethancourt1B	.333	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
Team		36	6	11	6	2	6	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. BoydSP	4.2	9	8	8	2	5	87
T. BeedeRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
H. MilnerRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	16
P. MatonRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
H. HarveyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	26
C. ThielbarRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12
Team	9.0	14	8	8	2	10	162

Team

CIN

CHC

3 sub-models, blended.

CHC vs CIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHC vs CIN.