Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+7ATL

PIT

16-11

ATL

18-6-2

CoolToday Park · North Port, Florida

7,042 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs PIT.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Paul SkenesPIT
7.2± 2.7medium
Braxton AshcraftPIT
6.8± 2.8medium

Hits

Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Nick GonzalesPIT
1.2± 0.8high
Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 1.5high

Total bases

Ryan O'HearnPIT
2.3± 3.6high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Brandon LowePIT
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Ryan O'HearnPIT
1.2± 2.1high
Brandon LowePIT
0.8± 1.4high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Mitch KellerPIT
3.5± 2.5medium
Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Jared JonesPIT
2.7± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PIT

league avg

ATL

.755

OPS

◀

.718

.720

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.311

5.11

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.76

4.14

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

9.2

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

PIT 1 · ATL 8 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PIT	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1
ATL	0	1	0	0	3	1	3	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
O. CruzCF	.400	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. O'HearnRF	.294	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. OzunaDH	.263	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Gonzales3B	.357	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. TrioloSS	.270	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
N. Yorke3B	.250	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. GarciaRF	.405	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Flores Jr.C	.080	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. MangumLF	.282	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. WilliamsSS	.241	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. CookRF	.257	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. RodriguezOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. RossC	.500	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Caro3B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CalixteOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. KingOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. CallihanLF	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MolaOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	1	4	1	0	2	12

Player

.400

.294

.263

.357

.270

.250

.405

.080

.282

.241

.257

.000

.500

.500

.000

.000

.211

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. RamirezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	11
J. LawrenceRP	0.2	0	1	1	2	0	27
J. ShirkRP	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	6
N. DombkowskiRP	4.0	4	4	4	4	3	75
B. NeeckRP	1.0	5	3	3	0	2	28
J. BaylessRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
Team	8.0	11	8	8	6	8	160

Player

1.0

0.2

0.1

4.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

160

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Acuna Jr.RF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
D. BaldwinC	.306	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
M. Olson1B	.268	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. Riley3B	.353	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
D. SmithDH	.242	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
O. Albies2B	.208	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. Harris IICF	.313	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MateoSS	.222	3	1	1	1	0	1	0
M. DubonSS	.297	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. GuanipaCF	.375	2	0	2	3	0	0	0
M. GuscetteC	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Groshans3B	.286	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. ConleySS	.385	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. Ogans3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JonesSS	.167	2	1	1	1	0	0	1
K. Kilpatrick Jr.CF	.571	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. WorkingerLF	.429	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. TavarezSS	.571	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
Team		35	8	11	8	1	6	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SuarezRP	5.1	2	1	1	2	6	75
J. PayampsRP	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	20
R. IglesiasRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16
R. SuarezRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	19
Team	9.0	4	1	1	2	12	130

Team

PIT

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs PIT.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs PIT.