Chicago Cubs vs Athletics: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+4ATH

CHC

11-16

ATH

13-15

Hohokam Stadium · Mesa, Arizona

6,027 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ATH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATH vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gage JumpATH
5.8± 2.8low
Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 2.8medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 3.0high
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC
2.0± 1.9high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
2.0± 1.8high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.4high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Carson KellyCHC
0.8± 1.9high

Earned runs

Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Shota ImanagaCHC
3.2± 3.4medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

ATH

.736

OPS

.718

.736

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.327

4.92

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.61

4.24

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.93

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATH wins

CHC 2 · ATH 6 (by 4)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2
ATH	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	2	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Busch1B	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Hoerner2B	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. AmayaC	.318	3	2	2	2	2	0	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.324	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. CarlsonLF	.316	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Long1B	.235	3	0	0	0	0	1	2
K. KepleyOF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
B.J. Murray Jr.3B	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Kingery3B	.178	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
A. CepedaSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Mathis1B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. ArmasC	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. LumpuyCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. AlcantaraOF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Cabada2B	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		33	2	6	2	2	3	13

Player

.229

.300

.318

.324

.316

.235

.250

.273

.178

.000

1.000

.143

.000

.250

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. TaillonSP	4.0	5	3	3	2	6	78
C. ReynoldsRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	15
J. AssadSP	2.1	4	2	1	1	3	50
Z. LeighRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	5
Team	8.0	11	6	5	3	11	148

Player

4.0

1.0

2.1

0.2

Team

8.0

148

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. ButlerRF	.250	3	1	1	2	1	0	2
N. Kurtz1B	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. LangeliersC	.364	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
T. SoderstromLF	.326	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RookerDH	.349	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. WilsonSS	.244	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. McNeil2B	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. Muncy3B	.391	2	1	1	1	1	1	1
A. Ibanez2B	.320	3	1	2	1	0	1	0
C. ThomasRF	.238	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
B. ServenC	.160	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. GuedezOF	.444	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. Bucciero3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. TaylorOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. BoserSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. LearyRF	.250	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. YamauchiSS	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. BrooksSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	11	6	3	3	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. SeverinoSP	5.0	2	1	1	2	7	79
N. AndersonRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	17
M. Leiter Jr.RP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	11
M. KellyRP	2.0	2	0	0	1	2	34
Team	9.0	6	2	2	3	13	141

Team

CHC

ATH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATH vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATH vs CHC.