Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 20, 2026

FINAL+1ARI

MIL

11-15

ARI

13-13-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

11,857 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs MIL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 95 high confidence

Strikeouts

Jacob MisiorowskiMIL
9.4± 2.9medium
Kyle HarrisonMIL
6.5± 3.8medium
Robert GasserMIL
5.2± 2.2low

Hits

William ContrerasMIL
1.2± 1.5high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high
Gabriel MorenoARI
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.1high
Jackson ChourioMIL
1.9± 1.4high

RBIs

Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high
Ildemaro VargasARI
0.7± 1.2high
Ketel MarteARI
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low
Brandon SproatMIL
2.7± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIL

league avg

ARI

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.692

.337

OBP

◀

.319

.307

5.16

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.22

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.33

1.18

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

9.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

MIL 7 · ARI 8 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIL	2	0	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	7
ARI	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	2	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. ChourioLF	.273	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
W. ContrerasC	.222	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. YelichDH	.115	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. Bauers1B	.484	2	1	2	1	1	1	0
S. FrelickRF	.217	3	1	3	3	0	0	0
L. Rengifo3B	.244	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Hamilton3B	.311	3	0	2	1	0	0	0
R. McGuireC	.103	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. ZamoraSS	.286	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
D. BrownCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. RodríguezC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. LeonardSS	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Baez3B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
B. Burke1B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. BrownSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. JonesLF	.211	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		36	7	11	7	3	2	4

Player

.273

.222

.115

.484

.217

.244

.311

.103

.286

.000

.200

.400

.000

.250

.000

.211

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MisiorowskiSP	4.1	4	4	4	2	3	86
M. LanghorneP	0.1	1	2	2	2	0	13
G. HodgesRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	1	13
L. HendersonSP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	26
J. NovaSP	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	24
Team	8.0	10	8	8	5	8	162

Player

4.1

0.1

0.1

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

162

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Marte2B	.143	3	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. CarrollRF	.143	2	1	0	0	0	2	2
G. PerdomoSS	.421	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
N. Arenado3B	.417	3	0	1	3	0	0	0
C. Santana1B	.267	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. ThomasCF	.360	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. LawlarLF	.318	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
T. YoungbloodOF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
M. O'NeillC	.417	3	1	2	2	0	0	1
T. TawaLF	.310	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
I. Melendez3B	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Valdez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AmayaSS	.349	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. Vargas1B	.359	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. RobertsOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. VirahondaC	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. JosephaCF	.333	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
P. CatuyCF	.500	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
Team		33	8	10	7	0	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Z. GallenSP	4.0	9	6	6	2	0	66
P. AbnerRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	21
R. ThompsonRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
K. GinkelRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
B. JarvisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14
A. HoffmannRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	9.0	11	7	7	2	4	129

Team

MIL

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs MIL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs MIL.