New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 19, 2026

FINAL+11TOR

NYY

16-10

011

TOR

10-13-2

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

6,746 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

122

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.1± 2.9medium

Hits

Ernie ClementTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Jasson DominguezNYY
0.9± 0.7high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.9± 2.6high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.6± 0.7high
Ben RiceNYY
0.5± 1.0high

Earned runs

Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Patrick CorbinTOR
2.8± 1.7medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

TOR

.749

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.93

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.08

3.32

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.16

1.19

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.33

8.8

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TOR wins

NYY 0 · TOR 11 (by 11)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TOR	1	0	2	4	4	0	0	0	11

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. Rosario3B	.333	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
J.C. EscarraC	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. GrichukDH	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
S. BrownLF	.156	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. DeJong3B	.182	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. FernandezRF	.167	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
M. SchuemannSS	.310	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. CoronaCF	.120	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Tejeda3B	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
K. KentSS	.375	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. HenryC	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. JacksonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. AvinaLF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. MoylanUN	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. GladneyLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. CobbSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. JacksonOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	0	3	0	0	1	8

Player

.333

.250

.125

.156

.182

.167

.310

.120

.000

.375

.167

.000

.250

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. WeathersSP	3.0	8	7	7	1	5	74
A. RossiRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
K. CastroRP	0.2	3	2	2	1	0	21
C. WinquestRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	13
B. HannerRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	2	30
C. ColemanRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	24
Team	8.0	14	11	11	4	11	167

Player

3.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

2.0

1.0

Team

8.0

167

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.313	4	2	3	4	1	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.442	3	2	3	2	1	1	0
V. Guerrero Jr.1B	.385	4	0	2	1	0	0	0
A. BargerRF	.278	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
A. KirkC	.150	4	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. SanchezRF	.238	4	2	2	0	0	0	1
K. Okamoto3B	.417	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
E. Clement2B	.385	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. GimenezSS	.308	2	2	1	2	1	1	0
E. MichelettiRF	.375	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. StubbsC	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CaseyOF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Yepez1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. PinangoLF	.160	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Doughty3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. Goodwin2B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. SchreckLF	.150	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
J. KasevichSS	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		37	11	14	10	3	4	11

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PonceSP	5.2	1	0	0	0	5	65
Y. RodriguezRP	1.1	2	0	0	1	3	28
J. HoffmanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
J. AlcalaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Team	9.0	3	0	0	1	8	110

Team

NYY

TOR

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs NYY.