Chicago White Sox vs San Diego Padres: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 19, 2026

FINAL+7SD

CHW

15-12-1

613

14-11-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

4,862 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SD favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SD win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SD vs CHW.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium
Davis MartinCHW
5.7± 3.0medium
Michael KingSD
4.6± 2.5medium

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.4medium

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 2.6high
Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.9low
Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Randy VasquezSD
2.7± 2.0medium
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHW

league avg

.738

OPS

◀

.718

.662

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.297

4.78

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.91

4.25

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.89

1.33

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.4

K / 9

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

CHW 6 · SD 13 (by 7)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHW	3	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	6
SD	3	0	0	3	0	0	0	7	13

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. PereiraRF	.222	4	1	2	0	0	0	2
M. Vargas3B	.304	2	0	0	1	0	1	0
C. Mead3B	.231	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
L. Wade Jr.1B	.289	2	2	2	3	2	2	0
D. HillRF	.317	4	1	2	0	0	0	1
S. AntonacciLF	.313	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
K. LeeC	.297	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.267	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
W. Bergolla Jr.2B	.314	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Gonzalez1B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. ZavalaCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Perez3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Camilletti2B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Weber2B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BurkeCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. NishidaRF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BreauxC	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Galanie1B	.182	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		34	6	11	6	3	6	10

Player

.222

.304

.231

.289

.317

.313

.297

.267

.314

.250

.000

.000

.200

.167

.000

.250

.200

.182

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. CoffeyRP	2.0	3	3	3	1	1	31
T. SchweitzerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	10
Jac. KelleyRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	14
S. KeenerP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	8
B. PeoplesRP	0.1	5	3	3	1	1	24
F. AriasSP	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	7
R. GowensSP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	20
E. AdlerRP	0.0	1	5	5	4	0	22
L. BellRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	18
Team	8.0	14	13	13	9	6	154

Player

2.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

1.0

0.0

1.0

Team

8.0

154

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Cronenworth2B	.378	3	2	2	3	0	2	0
F. Tatis Jr.RF	.308	1	1	1	2	0	2	0
J. MerrillCF	.233	5	1	1	1	0	0	2
M. Machado3B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Sheets1B	.270	5	2	3	2	1	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.318	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
M. AndujarDH	.262	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
F. FerminC	.412	4	1	1	1	0	1	0
R. LaureanoLF	.273	3	1	1	0	0	1	1
B. JohnsonRF	.302	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
T. France1B	.341	1	1	1	3	1	1	0
F. Acuna3B	.185	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.325	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BowenRF	.304	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	13	14	13	2	9	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KingSP	5.0	9	6	6	2	3	91
K. HartRP	1.1	2	0	0	0	1	18
B. RodriguezRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	2	23
W. PeraltaRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	25
J. EstradaRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	19
Team	9.0	11	6	6	6	10	176

Team

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

SD vs CHW.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SD vs CHW.