Tampa Bay Rays vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 19, 2026

FINAL+6PHI

8-16-1

PHI

10-14-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

8,914 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs TB.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium
Zack WheelerPHI
6.1± 2.5low

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high

Earned runs

Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
2.1± 2.1medium
Alan RangelPHI
2.0± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

PHI

.730

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.336

OBP

◀

.319

.301

4.52

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.38

3.78

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.08

1.20

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.0

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

TB 2 · PHI 8 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TB	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	2
PHI	0	2	1	0	2	3	0	0	8

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. WilliamsSS	.320	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Williamson2B	.342	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. FortesC	.280	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. MalloyRF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. ViladeRF	.225	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
L. Davidson1B	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. MartinezOF	.333	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
R. Delgado2B	.229	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. TooleOF	.182	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. ColmenarezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PerezSS	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. GonzalezC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	2	2	2	2	2	10

Player

.320

.342

.280

.222

.225

.143

.333

.229

.182

.000

.500

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. RasmussenSP	5.2	11	8	7	2	3	83
H. BiggeRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
K. KellyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	8
Y. GomezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	8.0	11	8	7	2	4	106

Player

5.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

106

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.135	4	1	1	0	0	0	1
B. Stott2B	.364	4	1	2	2	1	0	0
A. Bohm3B	.314	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. GarciaRF	.303	3	1	1	1	1	1	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.227	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
B. MarshLF	.156	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
E. Sosa2B	.333	3	1	0	1	0	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.273	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
O. KempLF	.250	3	1	2	4	1	0	1
R. Moore2B	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. BiddisonRF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Vradenburg1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. FergusLF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. HumphreysOF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarkerOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. DaySS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.233	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		33	8	11	8	3	2	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. MayzaRP	2.0	0	0	0	1	4	27
Z. PopRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	20
J. AlvaradoRP	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	21
J. DuranRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
J. HernándezRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
L. TrivinoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
G. CabreraRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	11
Team	9.0	2	2	2	2	10	113

Team

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs TB.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs TB.