Baltimore Orioles vs New York Yankees: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 19, 2026

FINAL+1NYY

BAL

9-12-3

NYY

16-9

George M. Steinbrenner Field · Tampa, Florida

8,682 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · NYY favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYY win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYY vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 93 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.1± 2.9medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium

Hits

Taylor WardBAL
1.0± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.9± 1.3high
Blaze AlexanderBAL
0.9± 1.2high

Total bases

Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
1.9± 2.6high
Adley RutschmanBAL
1.6± 2.8high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high
Samuel BasalloBAL
0.6± 1.3high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium
Trey GibsonBAL
2.7± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

NYY

.718

OPS

.718

▶

.749

.319

OBP

.319

▶

.323

4.61

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.93

4.36

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.32

1.37

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.8

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

BAL 4 · NYY 5 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	4
NYY	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	5

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. WardLF	.310	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
G. HendersonSS	.200	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
P. Alonso1B	.267	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
A. RutschmanC	.289	4	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. O'NeillRF	.500	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Mountcastle1B	.324	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. Mayo3B	.452	3	1	1	2	1	0	0
C. CowserRF	.225	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
B. Alexander3B	.281	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. SosaCF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BarreroSS	.121	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezOF	.600	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Yeaman3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. GeorgeOF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. O'FerrallSS	.417	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
S. HuffC	.174	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. HoneycuttCF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. AustinCF	.200	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		35	4	10	4	1	6	6

Player

.310

.200

.267

.289

.500

.324

.452

.225

.281

.000

.121

.600

.000

.000

.417

.174

.500

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. KremerSP	4.1	2	1	1	3	8	83
G. OgandoRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
Y. CanoRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	14
Y. RiveraRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14
J. HenriquezSP	1.0	2	1	1	0	3	19
C. RustadRP	0.1	2	2	2	1	0	13
Team	8.1	8	5	5	4	12	150

Player

4.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

Team

8.1

150

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.171	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
P. Goldschmidt1B	.471	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Chisholm Jr.2B	.211	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
G. StantonDH	.273	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. DominguezRF	.325	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. McMahon3B	.128	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. CaballeroSS	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. WellsC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. Cabrera3B	.091	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Vivas3B	.190	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
T. Hardman1B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Lombard Jr.SS	.179	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. DuranC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. MartinRF	.375	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
R. AriasSS	.333	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
J. MoralesLF	.667	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. SanchezC	.143	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. GabrielsonCF	.200	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	5	8	5	2	4	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. FriedSP	5.0	5	3	3	4	2	81
Y. De los SantosRP	1.2	2	0	0	0	0	21
J. BirdRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	10
D. ColemanRP	0.2	1	1	1	2	2	26
O. BidoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	10	4	4	6	6	149

Team

BAL

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

NYY vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYY vs BAL.