Los Angeles Angels vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 19, 2026

FINAL+1LAA

LAA

15-14

8-17-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

5,594 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs LAA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Reid DetmersLAA
6.7± 3.8medium
Jose SorianoLAA
5.6± 1.9medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium

Hits

Donovan WaltonLAA
1.3± 1.0high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Donovan WaltonLAA
2.4± 1.7high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high

RBIs

Donovan WaltonLAA
0.9± 1.0high
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Ryan JohnsonLAA
3.2± 3.6low
Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Jose SorianoLAA
2.7± 2.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAA

league avg

.716

OPS

◀

.718

.707

.318

OBP

.319

.316

4.54

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

4.59

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.40

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

8.9

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAA wins

LAA 4 · KC 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4
KC	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	3

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. SolerDH	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Candelario3B	.239	3	0	0	0	0	2	1
J. AdellRF	.356	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
L. O'HoppeC	.244	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
O. Peraza2B	.333	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
C. TaylorCF	.231	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
A. Frazier2B	.310	0	0	0	0	0	2	0
Y. Sanchez3B	.290	3	0	1	1	0	1	0
B. TeodosioLF	.250	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. Mancini1B	.100	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. FlintRF	.333	2	2	2	0	0	0	0
S. RiveroC	.217	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MershonSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. RamirezOF	1.000	2	1	2	2	0	0	0
D. Walton3B	.321	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	7	3	0	9	11

Player

.333

.239

.356

.244

.333

.231

.310

.290

.250

.100

.333

.217

.000

1.000

.321

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. KikuchiSP	4.2	2	1	1	3	2	64
D. PomeranzRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	2	10
W. UrenaSP	4.0	3	2	2	2	4	66
Team	9.0	5	3	3	5	8	140

Player

Y. KikuchiSP

4.2

D. PomeranzRP

0.1

W. UrenaSP

4.0

Team

9.0

140

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. India2B	.261	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. ThomasCF	.289	4	2	1	1	1	0	1
S. MarteRF	.267	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JensenC	.250	3	1	1	1	0	1	1
N. Loftin2B	.289	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CaglianoneRF	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. Newman3B	.231	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. Toro1B	.294	1	0	1	1	0	2	0
C. RoccaforteCF	.158	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. PinedaSS	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. CharlesSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. GonzalezCF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. PelzerOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. SailorsOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
O. HernandezC	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. SquiresOF	.235	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CericeP	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		33	3	5	3	1	5	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. BubicSP	4.0	1	1	0	3	4	59
E. MorganRP	2.0	0	0	0	2	4	37
S. PanziniSP	1.2	4	2	2	2	2	38
A. MendietaP	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	10
A. PérezRP	1.0	2	1	1	1	0	17
Team	9.0	7	4	3	9	11	161

Team

LAA

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs LAA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs LAA.