Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 19, 2026

FINAL+1CLE

8-18-1

CLE

13-12-1

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

4,010 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CLE favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CLE win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CLE vs KC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
5.1± 2.5medium

Hits

Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high
Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Carter JensenKC
2.0± 1.7high
Travis BazzanaCLE
1.9± 3.1high

RBIs

Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Cooper IngleCLE
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Gavin WilliamsCLE
2.8± 2.4medium
Noah CameronKC
2.6± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

CLE

.707

OPS

◀

.718

.676

.316

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.20

Runs / G

◀

4.50

3.94

4.83

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.76

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.26

7.9

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.3

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

KC 5 · CLE 6 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
KC	0	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	5
CLE	1	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Rojas3B	.263	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. Wilson2B	.241	3	1	2	2	1	0	1
V. Pasquantino1B	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Drury2B	.171	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. CrossRF	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
L. TreshC	.296	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
C. KaiserSS	.250	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
D. VazquezSS	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. MartinRF	.182	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Johnson2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. ScottLF	.400	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
Kulasingham1B	.500	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
R. RamírezC	.083	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. GentryRF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. BrownC	.188	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. DickersonSS	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Becker1B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. TorresCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	5	10	5	4	2	8

Player

.263

.241

.167

.171

.286

.296

.250

.241

.182

.000

.400

.500

.083

.250

.188

.500

.143

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. CameronSP	4.1	5	4	4	2	4	80
B. JohnsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	5
S. CruzRP	1.1	2	0	0	2	2	38
J. CuasRP	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	15
H. OlivarezSP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	24
Team	8.0	8	6	6	5	7	162

Player

4.1

0.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

162

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
S. FairchildRF	.190	5	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. Ramirez3B	.235	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
D. FryRF	.138	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
C. DeLauterRF	.400	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
B. NaylorC	.313	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
G. AriasSS	.344	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
K. Manzardo1B	.140	2	1	1	3	1	1	1
D. SchneemannCF	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.353	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Frias3B	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MooneySS	.273	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. NunezC	.300	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Arnold2B	.000	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. Kieboom3B	.160	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
Team		31	6	8	6	2	5	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
P. MessickSP	5.2	7	4	4	0	4	87
R. JohnstonP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
C. BrogdonRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	10
T. HerrinRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	16
I. MartinezRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	15
Team	9.0	10	5	5	2	8	132

Team

CLE

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CLE vs KC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CLE vs KC.