Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 19, 2026

FINAL+2BOS

MIN

8-16-1

BOS

12-12

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

9,635 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 84 high confidence

Strikeouts

Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 3.1medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Caleb DurbinBOS
1.3± 0.8high
Anthony SeiglerBOS
1.1± 1.0low

Total bases

Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high
Brooks LeeMIN
2.2± 2.3high
Caleb DurbinBOS
2.1± 2.1high

RBIs

Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high
Trevor LarnachMIN
0.8± 1.3high
Tsung-Che ChengBOS
0.7± 0.8low

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low
Taj BradleyMIN
2.9± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

BOS

.734

OPS

◀

.718

.697

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.312

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

4.86

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.70

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

MIN 2 · BOS 4 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2
BOS	0	0	0	2	0	1	1	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. Clemens1B	.290	4	0	2	0	0	0	1
L. Keaschall2B	.364	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. WallnerRF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. BellDH	.324	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RodenLF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
V. CaratiniC	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
J. OutmanCF	.216	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Lewis3B	.091	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. GraySS	.194	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. HessOF	1.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. Salas2B	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HoughtonCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BanuelosC	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. KreidlerCF	.118	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. JacksonC	.067	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. Urshela3B	.208	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Doncon3B	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Rucker2B	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	6	0	0	2	12

Player

.290

.364

.333

.324

.333

.143

.216

.091

.194

1.000

.500

.000

.333

.118

.067

.208

.400

.111

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. AbelSP	4.2	3	2	2	2	6	79
L. QuinonesSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	3
L. HendriksRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	40
D. AltavillaRP	1.0	2	1	1	2	0	26
M. BowmanRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	19
Team	8.0	9	4	4	6	10	167

Player

4.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

167

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. YoshidaDH	.000	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. StorySS	.405	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.474	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
W. Contreras1B	.533	2	1	2	1	0	1	0
C. Durbin3B	.389	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Mayer2B	.240	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
C. RafaelaCF	.304	2	0	1	2	0	1	0
C. NarvaezC	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. EatonOF	.346	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Nunez3B	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
V. Capra3B	.071	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. OpataOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.394	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. GasperC	.348	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.323	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. WongC	.077	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
K. Campbell2B	.225	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. WardCF	.381	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	4	9	4	0	6	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. BelloSP	6.0	3	0	0	0	7	69
A. ChapmanRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	17
J. SlatenRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	1	10
D. CoulombeRP	0.2	1	1	0	1	2	20
T. GuerreroRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
Team	9.0	6	2	0	2	12	120

Team

MIN

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs MIN.