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FINAL
MIA
11-13-3
00
WSH
14-11-3
CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida
Model ensemble · how the prediction is built
3 sub-models, blended.
Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.
50.3%
ensemble · WSH favored
Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Disagreement
0.00 pp
weighted σ across sub-models
Confidence
100% · high
maps from disagreement
Substrate count
0 / 3 active
ones with full inputs tonight
Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.
Matchup · 2026
Team rate stats vs league
MLB Stats API
MIA
league avg
WSH
.711
OPS
.718
▶.741
.323
OBP
◀
.319
.319
4.27
Runs / G
4.50
▶5.28
3.94
Team ERA
◀
4.17
4.69
1.24
WHIP
◀
1.31
1.39
8.6
K / 9
◀
8.5
7.9
Postgame · final
The morning-after recap.
Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.
Final
MIA wins
MIA 0 · WSH 0 (tied)
Model verdict
No projection
Against the spread
No spread
Line score
Inning by inning
What's next
Tomorrow's slate is open.
See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.
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Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant