Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 18, 2026

FINAL+1BAL

BAL

9-11-3

TOR

9-13-2

TD Ballpark · Dunedin, Florida

7,269 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TOR favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TOR win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TOR vs BAL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

125

projections · 92 high confidence

Strikeouts

Dylan CeaseTOR
8.5± 2.0medium
Kyle BradishBAL
5.9± 3.9medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
5.4± 2.1medium

Hits

Taylor WardBAL
1.0± 1.1high
Ernie ClementTOR
1.0± 1.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
1.0± 1.1high

Total bases

Kazuma OkamotoTOR
2.2± 2.4high
Pete AlonsoBAL
1.9± 2.0high
Nathan LukesTOR
1.7± 1.9high

RBIs

Pete AlonsoBAL
0.9± 1.1high
Kazuma OkamotoTOR
0.9± 1.3high
Adley RutschmanBAL
0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

Trevor RogersBAL
3.0± 2.6medium
Kevin GausmanTOR
3.0± 2.9medium
Shane BazBAL
2.8± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

BAL

league avg

TOR

.718

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.319

OBP

◀

.319

.310

4.61

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.08

4.36

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.16

1.37

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.33

8.1

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BAL wins

BAL 3 · TOR 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
BAL	2	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	3
TOR	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. BeaversRF	.212	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. RutschmanC	.294	4	1	2	0	0	0	0
P. Alonso1B	.262	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
R. Mountcastle1B	.314	4	0	2	1	0	0	2
C. CowserRF	.237	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
B. Alexander3B	.267	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. Jackson2B	.231	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
We. Wilson3B	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. BarreroSS	.125	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
I. IrishC	.800	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HandleyC	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Bowens1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
V. Figueroa1B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Smith2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Lo ReSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Yeaman3B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	3	7	3	1	1	12

Player

.212

.294

.262

.314

.237

.267

.231

.250

.125

.800

.143

.000

.000

.500

.500

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SuarezRP	4.0	3	1	1	2	5	75
Y. HiraldoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	12
D. EnnsRP	1.0	1	0	0	2	2	33
D. HeidRP	1.0	0	1	1	2	0	20
B. VespiSP	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	17
A. PhamRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17
Team	9.0	5	2	2	8	10	174

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

174

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. SpringerDH	.250	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. VarshoCF	.400	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. KirkC	.188	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
A. BargerRF	.281	2	1	1	1	1	0	0
K. Okamoto3B	.333	0	0	0	0	0	3	0
N. LukesRF	.300	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. SchneiderLF	.094	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
E. JimenezDH	.275	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Jimenez3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SanchezRF	.211	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
R. SchreckLF	.158	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
C. Mendoza3B	.412	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. HeinemanC	.294	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. StrawRF	.200	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. RiveraSS	.222	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Y. PinangoLF	.160	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Lantigua2B	.367	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Tirotta3B	.226	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. KasevichSS	.281	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		31	2	5	1	1	8	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. FlemingRP	2.0	3	2	2	1	2	40
S. MilesRP	2.0	3	1	1	0	2	35
L. VarlandRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	16
A. BastardoRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	21
B. FisherRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. LittleRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	12
M. FluhartyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	10
Team	9.0	7	3	3	1	12	136

Team

BAL

TOR

3 sub-models, blended.

TOR vs BAL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TOR vs BAL.