Houston Astros vs St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 18, 2026

FINAL+3STL

HOU

10-11-3

STL

13-9-2

Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium · Jupiter, Florida

4,893 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · STL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(STL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

STL vs HOU.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 87 high confidence

Strikeouts

Hunter BrownHOU
6.4± 3.1low
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
5.5± 2.4low
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium

Hits

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.3± 1.0high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.2± 1.1high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high

Total bases

Isaac ParedesHOU
1.9± 1.7high
Jeremy PenaHOU
1.9± 2.6high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high

RBIs

Isaac ParedesHOU
0.8± 0.7high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Mike BurrowsHOU
3.1± 2.6medium
Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Spencer ArrighettiHOU
2.7± 3.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

HOU

league avg

STL

.726

OPS

◀

.718

.717

.316

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.50

Runs / G

4.50

4.47

4.74

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.26

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.35

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.5

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

STL wins

HOU 1 · STL 4 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
HOU	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1
STL	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Altuve2B	.129	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
I. Paredes3B	.238	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. AlvarezDH	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CorreaSS	.316	1	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. LoperfidoLF	.324	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. SmithRF	.273	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. Walker1B	.107	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. DiazC	.087	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MeyersCF	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Nelson3B	.200	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
T. SaccoSS	.133	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Whitcomb3B	.267	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
R. Unroe2B	.269	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. PowellSS	.286	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CallUN	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CJ Alexander1B	.059	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SalazarC	.150	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	1	5	1	0	1	9

Player

.129

.238

.250

.316

.324

.273

.107

.087

.111

.200

.133

.267

.269

.286

.333

.059

.150

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.P. FranceSP	4.0	3	1	1	0	4	51
S. OkertRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	25
A. BlubaughRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	9
K. TengRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
T. DombroskiSP	1.0	3	3	3	0	0	15
Team	8.0	6	4	4	2	7	109

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

109

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. WinnSS	.133	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
I. HerreraDH	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Urias3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.162	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. VelazquezLF	.306	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. SaggeseLF	.333	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.167	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.313	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Moore2B	.161	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
Je. BaezSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.143	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Mendoza2B	.286	1	1	1	2	1	1	0
C. LedbetterCF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Z. LevensonOF	.250	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Gurevitch1B	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. PeeteOF	.273	1	1	1	1	1	0	0
J. GazdarSS	.600	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
Team		29	4	6	4	2	2	7

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. LeahySP	5.0	3	0	0	1	6	75
R. StanekRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	12
J. RomeroRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	10
M. SvansonRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	27
Team	9.0	5	1	1	1	9	124

Team

HOU

STL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs HOU.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

STL vs HOU.