Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 18, 2026

FINAL+1ATL

PHI

9-14-1

ATL

17-6-2

CoolToday Park · North Port, Florida

6,744 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ATL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ATL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ATL vs PHI.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Brandon MarshPHI
2.2± 2.4high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high
Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.1± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

PHI

league avg

ATL

.701

OPS

.718

▶

.720

.301

OBP

.319

▶

.311

4.38

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.76

4.08

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.41

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.21

9.6

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ATL wins

PHI 2 · ATL 3 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
PHI	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	2
ATL	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	3

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. StubbsC	.238	5	0	1	0	0	0	2
O. KempLF	.220	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
R. MarchanC	.241	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. De La CruzOF	.324	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
F. ReyesLF	.303	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. MooreCF	.226	2	0	2	2	0	1	0
L. PegueroSS	.135	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. CairoSS	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. PintoC	.174	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. McIntoshC	.273	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Binelas1B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. HumphreysOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		34	2	7	2	0	2	11

Player

.238

.220

.241

.324

.303

.226

.135

.200

.174

.273

.250

.500

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PainterSP	4.0	1	0	0	1	3	52
S. JohnsonRP	2.0	1	0	0	1	3	29
T. DavidsonRP	2.0	4	3	0	1	2	38
Team	8.0	6	3	0	3	8	119

Player

A. PainterSP

4.0

S. JohnsonRP

2.0

T. DavidsonRP

2.0

Team

8.0

119

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. DubonSS	.314	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
D. BaldwinC	.303	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
M. Olson1B	.263	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Riley3B	.355	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
O. Albies2B	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. SmithDH	.258	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Harris IICF	.333	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
B. GamelRF	.206	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
L. WilliamsSS	.200	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. JarvisSS	.167	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Compton1B	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. WaddellSS	.333	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. ConleySS	.364	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. McIntyreOF	.500	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
E. HartmanOF	.167	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
E. WorkingerLF	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MaciasOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	3	6	2	0	3	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. PerezSP	3.2	6	1	0	1	1	64
J. KroegerRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4
R. SuarezRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	18
D. FuentesRP	4.0	0	0	0	0	8	50
Team	9.0	7	2	1	2	11	136

Team

PHI

ATL

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ATL vs PHI.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ATL vs PHI.