Chicago Cubs vs Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 18, 2026

FINAL+8ARI

CHC

11-14

816

ARI

12-12-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

11,242 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · ARI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(ARI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

ARI vs CHC.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

121

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Matthew BoydCHC
5.8± 3.1low
Shota ImanagaCHC
5.2± 2.8medium
Eduardo RodriguezARI
4.6± 1.5medium

Hits

Nico HoernerCHC
1.2± 1.2high
Seiya SuzukiCHC
1.2± 0.9high
Corbin CarrollARI
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Ketel MarteARI
2.4± 1.7high
Dansby SwansonCHC
2.1± 3.0high
Corbin CarrollARI
2.0± 2.1high

RBIs

Dansby SwansonCHC
1.3± 2.4high
Justin DeanCHC
1.0± 2.3low
Corbin CarrollARI
0.8± 1.7high

Earned runs

Zac GallenARI
4.0± 2.2medium
Jordan WicksCHC
3.7± 5.5low
Merrill KellyARI
3.4± 2.8low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CHC

league avg

ARI

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.692

.335

OBP

◀

.319

.307

4.92

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.22

4.24

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.33

1.25

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.30

8.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

ARI wins

CHC 8 · ARI 16 (by 8)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CHC	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	3	0	8
ARI	1	0	6	7	0	0	2	0	16

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. ShawRF	.359	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
M. AmayaC	.263	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
M. ConfortoDH	.241	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. AlcantaraDH	.355	4	2	3	2	1	0	1
J. Long1B	.286	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
B.J. Murray Jr.3B	.267	3	1	0	0	0	1	2
J. RojasSS	.227	3	1	1	4	1	0	0
S. Kingery3B	.195	3	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. Triantos2B	.219	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. NwoguLF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Bethancourt1B	.286	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. PalmerOF	.250	1	1	0	0	0	1	1
Le. EspinozaCF	.429	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Bowser3B	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. Cowles3B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. CepedaSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	8	9	8	3	4	6

Player

.359

.263

.241

.355

.286

.267

.227

.195

.219

.000

.286

.250

.429

.143

.222

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. CabreraSP	3.0	7	8	7	1	4	74
G. MooreRP	0.0	2	3	3	2	0	19
D. NetzRP	1.0	2	3	3	1	0	17
G. HollowellRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	12
B. BrownRP	1.0	3	0	0	0	2	24
Y. RiosRP	1.0	3	2	2	0	2	27
C. MartinRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	15
Team	8.0	17	16	15	5	9	188

Player

3.0

0.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

188

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. CarrollRF	.167	3	3	1	1	1	0	0
A. ThomasCF	.364	4	1	1	2	1	0	2
G. PerdomoSS	.412	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
N. Arenado3B	.444	1	1	1	2	0	1	0
C. Santana1B	.308	3	1	2	1	0	0	1
J. LawlarLF	.293	2	2	1	0	0	2	0
I. Vargas1B	.368	2	2	1	2	0	1	0
A. GarciaC	.200	2	0	1	3	0	0	0
J. BarrosaCF	.294	3	1	2	2	1	0	0
D. Serretti3B	.111	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
I. LucianoC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. TawaLF	.297	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
B. Counsell2B	.500	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
I. Melendez3B	.200	2	2	1	0	0	0	0
A. BenuaCF	.667	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
J. AmayaSS	.342	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. JosephaCF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
C. RobertsOF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
Team		40	16	17	15	3	5	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. KellySP	2.2	5	2	2	0	0	36
J. RossRP	1.1	1	3	3	2	0	33
J. MorilloRP	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	26
T. ClarkeRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
P. SewaldRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
K. StrowdRP	0.2	2	3	3	2	2	35
A. BakerRP	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	9	8	8	4	6	166

Team

CHC

ARI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

ARI vs CHC.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

ARI vs CHC.