St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL+1WSH

STL

12-9-2

WSH

13-7-3

CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches · Palm Beach, Florida

3,480 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · WSH favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(WSH win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

WSH vs STL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Foster GriffinWSH
6.2± 2.2medium
Dustin MaySTL
5.5± 3.4medium
Cade CavalliWSH
5.2± 3.2medium

Hits

JJ WetherholtSTL
1.2± 1.3high
Lars NootbaarSTL
1.1± 0.7high
Masyn WinnSTL
1.1± 0.8high

Total bases

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
2.8± 3.6high
JJ WetherholtSTL
1.8± 2.8high
CJ AbramsWSH
1.8± 2.1high

RBIs

Luis Garcia Jr.WSH
0.9± 1.5high
Blaze JordanSTL
0.8± 1.4low
Alec BurlesonSTL
0.6± 0.5high

Earned runs

Matthew LiberatoreSTL
3.1± 2.1medium
Dustin MaySTL
2.5± 2.1medium
Andre PallanteSTL
2.4± 1.9medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

STL

league avg

WSH

.717

OPS

.718

▶

.741

.324

OBP

◀

.319

4.47

Runs / G

4.50

▶

5.28

4.26

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.69

1.35

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.39

7.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

WSH wins

STL 0 · WSH 1 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
WSH	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Wetherholt2B	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. WalkerRF	.176	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
A. Burleson1B	.286	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Gorman3B	.235	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
Y. PozoC	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. FerminLF	.179	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. ChurchLF	.290	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. PagesC	.154	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
V. Scott IICF	.143	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Moore2B	.138	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MadrisOF	.222	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. AnticoCF	.143	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Mendoza2B	.259	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Paige3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. PinoCF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. YerzyC	.214	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Y. PenaCF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	0	4	0	0	1	9

Player

.214

.176

.286

.235

.281

.179

.290

.154

.143

.138

.222

.143

.259

.000

.500

.214

.333

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
D. MaySP	5.0	4	1	1	1	3	81
G. SorianoRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
J. BruihlRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	14
S. BlewettRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14
Team	8.0	4	1	1	2	6	122

Player

5.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

122

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Nunez2B	.185	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. FranklinLF	.280	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
A. Chaparro1B	.172	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. House3B	.438	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
K. RuizC	.214	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. MillasC	.190	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. TenaDH	.214	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
J. WiemerRF	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Hassell IIICF	.286	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
K. MadeSS	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. Ortiz1B	.136	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Wallace3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. BarreraC	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. RamirezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
Team		27	1	4	1	0	2	6

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. IrvinSP	5.0	3	0	0	1	5	66
P. PoulinRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	11
A. GranilloRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	9
G. VarlandRP	2.0	1	0	0	0	3	26
Team	9.0	4	0	0	1	9	112

Team

STL

WSH

—

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs STL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

3 sub-models, blended.

WSH vs STL.