New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL+1NYY

NYY

14-9

8-15-1

Charlotte Sports Park · Port Charlotte, Florida

6,285 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TB favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TB win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TB vs NYY.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 100 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cam SchlittlerNYY
6.9± 3.3medium
Ryan WeathersNYY
6.1± 2.9medium
Drew RasmussenTB
6.1± 3.5medium

Hits

Yandy DiazTB
1.5± 1.1high
Junior CamineroTB
1.4± 1.4high
Jonathan ArandaTB
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Junior CamineroTB
3.0± 3.7high
Jonathan ArandaTB
2.0± 1.5high
Yandy DiazTB
2.0± 1.1high

RBIs

Junior CamineroTB
1.2± 2.0high
Jonathan ArandaTB
0.8± 1.0high
Paul GoldschmidtNYY
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Ryan WeathersNYY
2.7± 2.5medium
Gerrit ColeNYY
2.4± 2.7low
Will WarrenNYY
2.4± 2.0medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

NYY

league avg

.749

OPS

◀

.718

.730

.323

OBP

.319

▶

.336

4.93

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.52

3.32

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.78

1.19

WHIP

1.31

1.20

8.8

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.0

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

NYY wins

NYY 3 · TB 2 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
NYY	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	3
TB	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. GrishamCF	.156	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
B. Rice1B	.273	5	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. DominguezRF	.342	3	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. McMahon3B	.111	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
P. DeJong3B	.194	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
J.C. EscarraC	.276	4	1	3	1	1	0	0
O. Cabrera3B	.000	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. SchuemannSS	.360	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. BrownLF	.179	3	0	0	0	0	1	3
J. Vivas3B	.158	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. GabrielsonCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MoralesLF	.500	1	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. SanchezC	.150	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. Martin-GrudzielanekSS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. CoronaCF	.143	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Tejeda3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. TorresOF	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	3	7	3	1	7	11

Player

.156

.273

.342

.111

.194

.276

.000

.360

.179

.158

.200

.500

.150

B. Martin-GrudzielanekSS

.333

K. CoronaCF

.143

E. Tejeda3B

.000

N. TorresOF

.200

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
W. WarrenSP	4.0	3	1	1	1	4	68
C. WinquestRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16
J. BirdRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	19
O. BidoRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
Y. CruzRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	12
K. CastroRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	15
Team	9.0	7	2	2	2	12	141

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

141

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
Y. DiazDH	.350	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
J. Aranda1B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
J. Caminero3B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MullinsCF	.304	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. FraleyRF	.400	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. LuxLF	.200	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
H. FeducciaC	.115	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
B. Williamson2B	.371	3	0	1	1	0	0	0
J. DeLucaRF	.258	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. SabolC	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. Palacios2B	.158	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. SimpsonLF	.348	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. ViladeRF	.216	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. Delgado2B	.250	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
D. VellojinC	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. Davidson1B	.156	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. MalloyRF	.242	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	2	7	2	0	2	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. PepiotSP	5.0	4	1	1	3	2	76
J. BoyleSP	3.0	2	2	2	4	6	74
H. BiggeRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	15
Team	9.0	7	3	3	7	11	165

Team

NYY

3 sub-models, blended.

TB vs NYY.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TB vs NYY.