San Diego Padres vs Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL+3SD

13-11-1

SEA

6-17-1

Peoria Stadium · Peoria, Arizona

6,478 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · SEA favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(SEA win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

SEA vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Bryce MillerSEA
6.7± 3.4low
Logan GilbertSEA
6.6± 2.2medium
Bryan WooSEA
6.2± 3.1medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.4medium
Josh NaylorSEA
1.1± 0.7high

Total bases

Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.8± 2.0high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
0.5± 0.8high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Bryan WooSEA
2.8± 3.2medium
George KirbySEA
2.8± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

SEA

.662

OPS

.718

▶

.695

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.313

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.02

3.89

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.72

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.19

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

SD wins

SD 9 · SEA 6 (by 3)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	2	0	0	0	0	5	2	0	9
SEA	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1	1	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. Cronenworth2B	.353	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
J. MerrillCF	.237	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. AndujarDH	.256	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. Sheets1B	.219	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
X. BogaertsSS	.263	3	1	1	1	1	0	0
F. FerminC	.433	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
N. CastellanosRF	.237	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
R. LaureanoLF	.267	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.325	4	1	1	2	1	0	0
B. JohnsonRF	.310	1	1	1	0	0	1	0
J. BowenRF	.289	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. Miranda3B	.325	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Acuna3B	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. RodríguezRF	.313	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. DuranC	.263	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
N. SchnellRF	.250	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
M. McCoy2B	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		35	9	10	9	6	3	5

Player

.353

.237

.256

.219

.263

.433

.237

.267

.325

.310

.289

.325

.200

.313

.263

.250

.167

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
G. MarquezSP	5.0	3	3	3	1	9	78
M. WaldronSP	2.0	2	1	1	0	2	33
A. MorejonRP	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	23
D. MorganRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	11
Team	9.0	10	6	6	1	12	145

Player

5.0

2.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

145

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. Donovan3B	.412	3	0	0	1	0	0	1
R. RefsnyderDH	.176	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
L. RaleyRF	.278	4	2	3	1	1	0	1
R. ArozarenaLF	.200	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. GarverC	.105	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Young2B	.273	3	0	1	1	0	0	2
V. RoblesRF	.094	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. Emerson3B	.282	3	3	2	1	1	1	0
L. Suisbel1B	.267	4	0	1	0	0	0	2
A. St. Laurent3B	.667	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
G. FelizCF	.000	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
K. DurschlagOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PeredaC	.150	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
F. CelestenSS	.500	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
B. KnightOF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	6	10	6	2	1	12

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. CastilloSP	4.0	5	2	2	1	1	69
C. LeguminaRP	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
A. MunozRP	0.2	1	2	2	0	1	17
G. MayerSP	0.1	2	3	3	1	0	16
J. FerrerRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	3	24
C. VargasRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	18
Team	9.0	10	9	9	3	5	158

Team

SEA

3 sub-models, blended.

SEA vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

SEA vs SD.