Minnesota Twins vs Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL+2PHI

MIN

8-15-1

PHI

9-13-1

BayCare Ballpark · Clearwater, Florida

10,129 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · PHI favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(PHI win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

PHI vs MIN.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Cristopher SanchezPHI
7.6± 3.3medium
Joe RyanMIN
6.7± 3.0medium
Jesus LuzardoPHI
6.6± 3.4medium

Hits

Trevor LarnachMIN
1.4± 1.3high
Bryce HarperPHI
1.4± 1.4high
Brandon MarshPHI
1.3± 1.2high

Total bases

Bryce HarperPHI
2.7± 3.4high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
2.5± 4.1high
Trevor LarnachMIN
2.3± 2.4high

RBIs

Bryce HarperPHI
0.9± 1.2high
Kyle SchwarberPHI
0.9± 2.0high
Ryan KreidlerMIN
0.8± 1.4high

Earned runs

Zebby MatthewsMIN
3.1± 3.4low
Aaron NolaPHI
3.0± 2.0medium
Connor PrielippMIN
2.9± 2.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIN

league avg

PHI

.734

OPS

◀

.718

.701

.322

OBP

◀

.319

.301

4.85

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.38

4.86

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.08

1.40

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.30

8.3

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

PHI wins

MIN 0 · PHI 2 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
PHI	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	2

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. Lewis3B	.100	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. BellDH	.353	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
V. CaratiniC	.156	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Wagaman1B	.257	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. LeeSS	.279	3	0	2	0	0	0	0
O. ArciaSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. OutmanCF	.235	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
R. KreidlerCF	.121	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. FedkoLF	.130	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Rucker2B	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. HoughtonCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. BanuelosC	.273	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
N. CardenasC	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Schobel2B	.133	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. RosarioRF	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. RossSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Thomason3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	0	6	0	0	1	9

Player

.100

.353

.156

.257

.279

.200

.235

.121

.130

.125

.000

.273

.267

.133

.333

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. OberSP	4.0	2	1	1	2	0	58
L. HendriksRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	13
E. OrzeRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	16
Z. KentRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	19
C. LawerysonRP	0.1	2	0	0	0	0	9
T. BakerRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	7
Team	8.0	7	2	2	2	3	122

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.1

0.2

Team

8.0

122

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. TurnerSS	.121	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
J.T. RealmutoC	.263	2	1	1	0	0	1	0
A. GarciaRF	.300	4	1	4	2	1	0	0
A. Bohm3B	.323	4	0	1	0	0	0	0
B. Stott2B	.345	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. MarshLF	.103	4	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. Sosa2B	.381	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CrawfordCF	.244	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
D. MooreCF	.172	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. FergusLF	.500	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. PintoC	.158	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. CampbellCF	.125	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. BritoSS	.400	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Farquhar2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CairoSS	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. PegueroSS	.121	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. SaltibanSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		30	2	7	2	1	2	3

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LuzardoSP	5.0	5	0	0	1	5	77
J. BowlanRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	6
T. BanksRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	7
K. BackhusRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16
T. RichardsRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	14
Team	9.0	6	0	0	1	9	120

Team

MIN

PHI

—

3 sub-models, blended.

PHI vs MIN.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

PHI vs MIN.