Los Angeles Dodgers vs Kansas City Royals: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL+6LAD

LAD

17-8

104

8-15-1

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

10,996 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · KC favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(KC win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

KC vs LAD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD
6.1± 2.7medium
Roki SasakiLAD
5.4± 3.1low
Emmet SheehanLAD
5.3± 2.8medium

Hits

Mookie BettsLAD
1.3± 1.0high
Bobby Witt Jr.KC
1.2± 1.2high
Carter JensenKC
1.2± 0.7high

Total bases

Jac CaglianoneKC
2.5± 3.4high
Mookie BettsLAD
2.4± 2.5high
Freddie FreemanLAD
2.1± 1.9high

RBIs

Jac CaglianoneKC
0.8± 1.3high
Mookie BettsLAD
0.8± 1.0high
Carter JensenKC
0.7± 0.8high

Earned runs

Seth LugoKC
2.9± 2.4medium
Emmet SheehanLAD
2.7± 1.8medium
Roki SasakiLAD
2.7± 2.6low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

LAD

league avg

.784

OPS

◀

.718

.707

.345

OBP

◀

.319

.316

5.27

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.20

3.43

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.83

1.11

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.43

9.0

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.9

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

LAD wins

LAD 10 · KC 4 (by 6)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
LAD	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	6	10
KC	0	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. PagesCF	.385	4	0	1	2	0	0	0
K. TuckerRF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. Espinal3B	.412	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
D. RushingC	.189	3	1	1	1	1	1	2
A. Freeland2B	.108	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
N. Senzel3B	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. SuwinskiRF	.333	4	1	1	1	1	0	2
H. KimSS	.429	2	2	1	0	0	0	1
M. SirotaCF	.400	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
K. MyersOF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. Wagner3B	.400	1	1	1	1	0	0	0
E. QuinteroCF	.250	1	2	1	0	0	1	0
R. Fitzgerald3B	.310	2	0	1	1	0	0	0
S. ZavalaC	.250	1	1	1	4	1	0	0
K. Nevin3B	.273	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
Y. Fernandez1B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. KeithRF	.333	0	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. DayRP	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		38	10	11	10	3	3	13

Player

.385

.250

.412

.189

.108

.242

.333

.429

.400

.333

.400

.250

.310

.250

.273

.250

.333

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. SasakiSP	3.1	4	3	3	4	5	71
N. RobertsonRP	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	14
B. CaspariusRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	22
T. ScottRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	17
A. VesiaRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	12
C. MorseRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13
C. DayRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	18
Team	9.0	9	4	4	6	14	167

Player

3.1

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

167

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. India2B	.286	3	0	0	0	0	1	1
S. MarteRF	.364	2	1	2	0	0	2	0
L. ThomasCF	.294	2	0	0	0	0	2	2
N. Loftin2B	.294	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. Rojas3B	.265	3	0	1	0	0	1	1
B. Drury2B	.188	4	0	0	1	0	0	2
K. Newman3B	.243	4	1	2	1	0	0	1
E. DiazC	.533	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
G. CrossRF	.281	4	0	1	0	0	0	3
C. KaiserSS	.269	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Tolbert2B	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. GentryRF	.273	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
P. Wilson2B	.167	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
B. SquiresOF	.267	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. HernandezC	.125	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. PinedaSS	.273	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. TreshC	.304	3	1	1	2	1	0	1
Team		36	4	9	4	1	6	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. SanchezSP	3.0	5	3	3	1	4	54
B. FalterRP	3.0	0	0	0	0	5	37
J. SchreiberRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	15
L. ErcegRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	2	18
H. NerisRP	0.1	4	6	5	1	0	29
A. PérezRP	0.2	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	9.0	11	10	9	3	13	168

Team

LAD

3 sub-models, blended.

KC vs LAD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

KC vs LAD.