Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL+2CLE

CLE

12-12-1

CIN

12-12

Goodyear Ballpark · Goodyear, Arizona

5,203 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CIN favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CIN win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CIN vs CLE.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 88 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chase BurnsCIN
7.2± 2.5medium
Gavin WilliamsCLE
6.6± 2.4medium
Parker MessickCLE
6.3± 2.4medium

Hits

Brayan RocchioCLE
1.1± 0.9high
Edwin ArroyoCIN
1.0± 1.3high
Sal StewartCIN
1.0± 0.9high

Total bases

Travis BazzanaCLE
1.9± 3.1high
Sal StewartCIN
1.8± 1.8high
Spencer SteerCIN
1.6± 2.0high

RBIs

Sal StewartCIN
0.9± 1.9high
Kahlil WatsonCLE
0.8± 1.4low
Cooper IngleCLE
0.7± 1.6low

Earned runs

Nick LodoloCIN
3.2± 2.9low
Brady SingerCIN
2.8± 2.0medium
Rhett LowderCIN
2.8± 3.0low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

CLE

league avg

CIN

.676

OPS

.718

▶

.699

.312

OBP

.319

.310

3.94

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.27

3.76

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.57

1.26

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.46

9.3

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CLE wins

CLE 8 · CIN 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
CLE	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	5	0	8
CIN	0	2	0	0	2	1	0	0	1	6

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. KwanCF	.242	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. FairchildRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. DeLauterRF	.393	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
R. Hoskins1B	.233	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. NaylorC	.385	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
G. AriasSS	.333	2	1	1	0	0	1	1
K. Manzardo1B	.122	3	1	0	0	0	0	1
D. SchneemannCF	.296	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
T. Bazzana2B	.294	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. MartinezLF	.364	2	1	1	0	0	0	0
P. HalpinCF	.276	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
N. JonesRF	.152	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
R. HerreraC	.500	2	1	1	2	0	0	1
C. KayfusLF	.194	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
M. TolentinoSS	.211	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. CozartC	.222	0	0	0	1	0	0	0
J. Brito2B	.154	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
Y. Mijares2B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	8	7	8	1	5	12

Player

.242

.250

.393

.233

.385

.333

.122

.296

.294

.364

.276

.152

.500

.194

.211

.222

.154

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. AllardRP	3.0	1	2	1	0	5	49
S. ArmstrongRP	1.2	0	2	0	2	3	32
C. HeuerRP	0.2	3	1	1	1	1	27
T. StephanRP	0.2	1	0	0	1	1	15
C. SmithRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13
E. SabrowskiRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	19
M. EllertsRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	12
Team	9.0	7	6	3	4	14	167

Player

3.0

1.2

0.2

0.2

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

167

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. McLain2B	.512	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
S. Stewart1B	.333	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
E. De La CruzSS	.297	3	0	1	2	0	0	2
T. StephensonC	.143	2	0	0	0	0	1	2
S. SteerLF	.167	2	1	0	0	0	0	1
N. MarteRF	.275	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
K. Hayes3B	.222	1	1	0	0	0	1	0
R. HindsRF	.361	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
W. BanfieldC	.250	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. AlcantaraSS	.667	1	1	1	1	1	1	0
R. Ibarra1B	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Sanchez3B	.364	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. HunterC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. VuLF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
I. Johnson2B	.333	2	1	1	0	0	0	1
C. Collier3B	.200	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Y. ConfidanLF	.625	2	0	2	1	0	0	0
R. McCrystalC	.500	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		36	6	7	6	2	4	14

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. LodoloSP	4.2	3	3	2	1	7	77
E. SikorskiP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
G. AshcraftRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	17
S. MollRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	9
B. BurkeRP	0.0	3	5	5	3	0	27
D. SimmonsP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	14
H. DannerRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	17
G. GreenP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team	9.0	7	8	7	5	12	163

Team

CLE

CIN

3 sub-models, blended.

CIN vs CLE.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CIN vs CLE.