Athletics vs Chicago White Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL+2CHW

ATH

12-14

CHW

14-11-1

Camelback Ranch - Glendale · Phoenix, Arizona

6,325 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · CHW favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(CHW win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

CHW vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

130

projections · 90 high confidence

Strikeouts

Sean BurkeCHW
6.0± 1.6medium
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 2.8low
Davis MartinCHW
5.7± 3.0medium

Hits

Sam AntonacciCHW
1.2± 0.9high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.0± 1.0high
Jacob WilsonATH
1.0± 0.6high

Total bases

Miguel VargasCHW
2.0± 2.6high
Sam AntonacciCHW
1.7± 1.6high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.6± 1.9high

RBIs

Kyle TeelCHW
1.0± 1.9low
Nick KurtzATH
0.7± 1.1high
Miguel VargasCHW
0.7± 1.6high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Aaron CivaleATH
2.9± 3.3low
Erick FeddeCHW
2.3± 2.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

CHW

.736

OPS

.718

.738

.327

OBP

◀

.319

.322

4.61

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.78

4.93

Team ERA

4.17

▶

4.25

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.33

8.5

K / 9

8.5

8.4

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

CHW wins

ATH 4 · CHW 6 (by 2)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	2	0	4
CHW	0	0	5	0	1	0	0	0	6

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. Kurtz1B	.205	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
A. WynnsC	.281	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. ButlerRF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
D. HernaizSS	.429	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. ClarkeCF	.059	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ThomasRF	.250	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
A. Ibanez2B	.311	3	1	1	1	1	0	1
C. CortesRF	.250	3	0	0	0	0	0	3
Z. Gelof3B	.278	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
L. Mann3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. ServenC	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
S. McGuireC	.500	1	1	1	2	1	0	0
J. Kuroda-GrauerSS	.316	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. LearyRF	.182	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. Swift3B	.625	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ElliottLF	.231	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. RamosOF	.333	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Angeles3B	.227	0	1	0	0	0	0	0
Team		32	4	6	4	2	2	8

Player

.205

.281

.000

.429

.059

.250

.311

.250

.278

.250

.182

.500

.316

.182

.625

.231

.333

.227

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
L. MoralesSP	4.1	4	5	5	3	5	92
J. GonzalezRP	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	18
H. HarrisRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
L. MedinaRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	14
J. KuhnelRP	2.0	3	0	0	0	0	21
Team	8.0	9	6	6	5	5	151

Player

4.1

0.1

0.1

1.0

2.0

Team

8.0

151

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. Meidroth2B	.238	4	1	2	1	1	0	0
C. MontgomerySS	.214	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. Vargas3B	.318	3	1	0	0	0	1	1
M. Murakami1B	.353	4	1	1	1	1	0	0
A. HaysLF	.357	3	1	1	1	0	0	1
A. BenintendiDH	.286	2	1	1	3	1	1	1
E. QueroC	.326	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
L. AcunaCF	.471	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
D. HillRF	.297	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. BurkeCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Matthews2B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. ConnorOF	.364	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. PetersCF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
D. RomoC	.353	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Gonzalez1B	.267	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. NishidaRF	.250	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
S. ZavalaCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		29	6	9	6	3	5	5

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
A. KaySP	4.2	4	1	1	0	5	66
J. PaezSP	2.1	1	1	1	1	3	33
S. NewcombRP	1.0	1	2	2	1	0	24
C. MurphyRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	7
Team	9.0	6	4	4	2	8	130

Team

ATH

CHW

—

3 sub-models, blended.

CHW vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

CHW vs ATH.