Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 17, 2026

FINAL+1BOS

ATL

16-6-2

BOS

11-11

JetBlue Park at Fenway South · Fort Myers, Florida

9,601 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · BOS favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(BOS win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

BOS vs ATL.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

123

projections · 83 high confidence

Strikeouts

Chris SaleATL
7.7± 1.9medium
Ranger SuarezBOS
6.1± 3.1medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
5.8± 2.2medium

Hits

Caleb DurbinBOS
1.3± 0.8high
Mauricio DubonATL
1.2± 0.8high
Matt OlsonATL
1.1± 1.2high

Total bases

Caleb DurbinBOS
2.1± 2.1high
Mauricio DubonATL
2.0± 1.6high
Matt OlsonATL
1.7± 1.5high

RBIs

Rowdy TellezATL
0.7± 1.4low
Tsung-Che ChengBOS
0.7± 0.8low
Ozzie AlbiesATL
0.6± 1.1high

Earned runs

Bryce ElderATL
3.1± 2.8medium
Connelly EarlyBOS
2.4± 2.3medium
Grant HolmesATL
2.1± 1.8medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATL

league avg

BOS

.720

OPS

◀

.718

.697

.311

OBP

.319

.312

4.76

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.00

3.41

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.70

1.21

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.24

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

8.6

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

BOS wins

ATL 3 · BOS 4 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATL	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	3
BOS	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	4

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. MateoSS	.212	3	1	1	0	0	1	0
B. Wisely2B	.357	4	0	2	1	0	0	1
K. FarmerDH	.400	4	0	1	1	0	0	1
B. GamelRF	.194	4	0	0	0	0	0	4
J. CamargoC	.188	4	0	1	0	0	0	1
L. WilliamsSS	.179	2	0	1	0	0	2	0
S. LeonC	.071	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
P. ClohisyCF	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. AzocarRF	.314	3	1	0	0	0	1	0
L. EspinozaSS	.300	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
A. TavarezSS	.600	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. Groshans3B	.200	1	0	1	1	0	0	0
L. GuanipaCF	.167	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. SteelsCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JonesSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. TrompC	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. CareyOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Kilpatrick Jr.CF	.600	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		35	3	9	3	0	5	10

Player

.212

.357

.400

.194

.188

.179

.071

.222

.314

.300

.600

.200

.167

.000

.000

.300

.000

.600

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
R. LopezRP	3.2	5	3	3	2	6	73
D. DoddRP	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	18
K. NelsonRP	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	16
J. DashwoodRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	11
B. EnlowSP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	23
Team	8.0	6	4	4	6	8	141

Player

3.2

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

141

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. YoshidaDH	.000	4	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. StorySS	.424	3	0	2	0	0	0	1
J. DuranLF	.500	1	0	0	0	0	2	1
C. Durbin3B	.394	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Mayer2B	.250	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. RafaelaCF	.286	2	1	0	0	0	1	2
I. Kiner-Falefa2B	.406	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
C. NarvaezC	.320	3	0	1	2	0	0	1
N. EatonOF	.391	3	0	1	2	0	0	0
A. MonasterioSS	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
N. Sogard3B	.081	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. Campbell2B	.229	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. ChengSS	.077	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. WardCF	.368	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
V. Capra3B	.083	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. ThaissC	.190	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. CastroCF	.294	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		28	4	6	4	0	6	8

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
S. GraySP	3.1	4	2	2	4	3	70
Z. KellyRP	0.2	0	0	0	1	0	13
P. TolleSP	4.0	3	0	0	0	5	58
K. KellerRP	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	26
Team	9.0	9	3	3	5	10	167

Team

ATL

BOS

—

3 sub-models, blended.

BOS vs ATL.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

BOS vs ATL.