San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 14, 2026

FINAL+20TEX

10-11

222

TEX

13-8

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

6,301 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs SD.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

128

projections · 91 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

Fernando Tatis Jr.SD
1.2± 0.9high
Samad TaylorSD
1.1± 1.4medium
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Manny MachadoSD
2.0± 2.6high
Ty FranceSD
1.9± 3.4high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high

RBIs

Ty FranceSD
0.9± 1.7high
Manny MachadoSD
0.8± 1.5high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Griffin CanningSD
3.5± 3.0low
Randy VasquezSD
2.7± 2.0medium
Yu DarvishSD
2.6± 1.2medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

league avg

TEX

.662

OPS

.718

▶

.711

.297

OBP

.319

▶

.320

3.91

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.05

3.89

Team ERA

◀

4.17

3.96

1.30

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.4

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

SD 2 · TEX 22 (by 20)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
SD	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2
TEX	4	1	13	0	2	2	0	0	22

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. JohnsonRF	.289	3	1	2	0	0	0	0
T. France1B	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
N. SchnellRF	.222	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BowenRF	.293	4	1	1	2	1	0	3
C. RodríguezRF	.345	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
N. Solak1B	.342	3	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. DuranC	.222	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. Acuna3B	.227	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
P. ReyesOF	.296	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
K. WellsOF	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
R. Sanabria1B	.300	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. MurphyLF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. KarpathiosRF	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. Castanon2B	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. SalasC	.182	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. JacksonUN	.200	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. Dungan2B	.261	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		34	2	7	2	1	0	8

Player

.289

.333

.222

.293

.345

.342

.222

.227

.296

1.000

.300

.000

.000

.333

.182

.200

.261

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. GonzalesSP	2.0	8	11	10	6	1	67
C. EdmondsonRP	0.1	1	0	0	1	0	12
L. GillaspieRP	2.2	11	9	9	3	1	76
J. MallitzRP	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	18
B. SalazarRP	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	16
G. HawkinsRP	0.2	0	0	0	3	1	29
A. DalquistSP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	6
Team	8.0	22	22	21	16	4	224

Player

2.0

0.1

2.2

1.0

1.0

0.2

0.1

Team

8.0

224

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.389	4	5	4	4	2	1	0
W. LangfordLF	.481	3	2	3	2	1	1	0
C. SeagerSS	.259	3	2	1	1	1	1	1
A. McCutchenDH	.667	3	2	3	1	0	1	0
J. Smith2B	.406	1	2	1	5	1	3	0
E. CarterCF	.222	4	1	0	0	0	0	0
S. HaggertyLF	.370	3	2	2	1	0	1	0
E. DuranSS	.303	4	2	3	4	1	0	0
W. MacIverC	.158	2	2	0	0	0	2	0
T. HauverRF	.667	2	1	1	2	1	0	0
P. KlingOF	.667	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
K. RodriguezSS	.182	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
R. MartinSS	.333	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
M. MartinRF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
A. VelazquezSS	.115	2	0	0	0	0	1	0
A. ZavalaLF	.480	1	0	1	0	0	2	0
T. HardySS	.000	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
N. Pratto1B	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JohnsonC	.133	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
Team		44	22	22	21	7	16	4

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
N. EovaldiSP	5.2	6	2	2	0	5	81
M. ThompsonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	5
J. JunisRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	8
J. SborzRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	15
R. BrasierRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10
Team	9.0	7	2	2	0	8	119

Team

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs SD.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs SD.