Miami Marlins vs New York Mets: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 13, 2026

FINAL+1MIA

MIA

7-10-1

NYM

10-7-1

Clover Park · Port St. Lucie, Florida

4,466 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · NYM favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(NYM win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

NYM vs MIA.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

127

projections · 94 high confidence

Strikeouts

Max MeyerMIA
6.5± 1.8medium
Nolan McLeanNYM
6.3± 2.3medium
Eury PerezMIA
5.5± 3.3low

Hits

Otto LopezMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Xavier EdwardsMIA
1.2± 0.9high
Carson BengeNYM
1.2± 0.8high

Total bases

Kyle StowersMIA
2.1± 3.3high
Juan SotoNYM
2.1± 2.5high
Otto LopezMIA
1.8± 1.8high

RBIs

Kyle StowersMIA
0.8± 1.6high
Owen CaissieMIA
0.7± 1.2high
A.J. EwingNYM
0.7± 0.9high

Earned runs

Kodai SengaNYM
4.1± 3.0low
Sandy AlcantaraMIA
3.1± 3.2medium
Freddy PeraltaNYM
2.9± 3.6medium

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

MIA

league avg

NYM

.711

OPS

◀

.718

.675

.323

OBP

◀

.319

.300

4.27

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.04

3.94

Team ERA

◀

4.17

4.12

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.28

8.6

K / 9

8.5

▶

9.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

MIA wins

MIA 1 · NYM 0 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
NYM	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
E. RuizRF	.130	4	0	0	0	0	0	2
H. HernandezLF	.240	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Norby1B	.276	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
G. Pauley3B	.316	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
C. Morel1B	.172	3	0	1	1	0	0	1
J. MackC	.125	3	0	0	0	0	0	0
F. TrimbleOF	.000	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BastidasSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. JaworskySS	.333	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
M. ColeyCF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
R. IgnoffoC	.100	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. VargasSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
MccutcheonSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. BarrerasSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. McDowellOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
L. CovaOF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
W. Lara3B	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Team		31	1	4	1	0	0	13

Player

.130

.240

.276

.316

.172

.125

.000

.200

.333

.000

.100

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
C. PaddackSP	3.0	1	0	0	2	3	46
A. BenderRP	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	15
J. KingRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	16
C. FaucherRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	13
G. ActonRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	21
J. RalstonRP	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	22
Z. BrzykcyRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	11
Team	9.0	5	0	0	5	13	144

Player

3.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

144

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
M. Semien2B	.148	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Polanco1B	.357	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. BichetteSS	.200	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
L. Robert Jr.CF	.200	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
F. AlvarezC	.375	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
M. TauchmanRF	.278	2	0	1	0	0	1	1
L. TorrensC	.250	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
T. TaylorCF	.318	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
J. CluffSS	.167	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. BaeCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. ParadaC	.125	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
W. YoungSS	.400	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Rojas3B	.048	2	0	1	0	0	0	1
B. AdderleySS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
M. VargasSS	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Reimer3B	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. RamosCF	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. Clifford1B	.100	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		28	0	5	0	0	5	13

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
K. SengaSP	3.0	0	0	0	0	5	38
D. WilliamsRP	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	25
C. HolmesSP	5.0	2	1	1	0	6	62
Team	9.0	4	1	1	0	13	125

Team

MIA

NYM

3 sub-models, blended.

NYM vs MIA.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

NYM vs MIA.