Texas Rangers vs Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 13, 2026

FINAL+5TEX

TEX

12-8

COL

10-9-1

Salt River Fields at Talking Stick · Scottsdale, Arizona

7,945 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · COL favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(COL win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

COL vs TEX.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

126

projections · 99 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
MacKenzie GoreTEX
5.4± 2.6medium

Hits

TJ RumfieldCOL
1.4± 0.5high
Jake McCarthyCOL
1.3± 0.8high
Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high

Total bases

Jake McCarthyCOL
2.3± 2.3high
TJ RumfieldCOL
2.2± 1.4high
Hunter GoodmanCOL
2.1± 3.8high

RBIs

Hunter GoodmanCOL
0.8± 1.8high
TJ RumfieldCOL
0.8± 0.9high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.0high

Earned runs

Kyle FreelandCOL
4.7± 2.2medium
Michael LorenzenCOL
3.7± 2.9medium
Sean SullivanCOL
3.7± 5.5low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

TEX

league avg

COL

.711

OPS

.718

▶

.739

.320

OBP

.319

▶

.324

4.05

Runs / G

4.50

▶

4.61

3.96

Team ERA

◀

4.17

5.47

1.24

WHIP

◀

1.31

1.51

8.7

K / 9

◀

8.5

7.2

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

TEX 9 · COL 4 (by 5)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
TEX	0	0	7	0	2	0	0	0	0	9
COL	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	4

Final play

“End of the 9th inning”

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.214	2	0	1	3	0	0	0
W. LangfordLF	.417	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
C. SeagerSS	.250	3	1	1	0	0	0	2
J. Burger1B	.355	3	1	2	0	0	0	1
A. McCutchenDH	.500	1	1	1	1	0	2	0
D. JansenC	.174	3	1	0	1	0	1	1
E. CarterCF	.261	0	0	0	1	0	2	0
J. Smith2B	.387	2	2	2	3	1	1	0
S. HaggertyLF	.333	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
M. CanhaLF	.296	3	0	1	0	0	0	2
M. HelmanCF	.130	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
E. DuranSS	.241	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
T. Wade2B	.500	1	0	0	0	0	1	0
J. Bride3B	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HerreraC	.292	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
K. JonesLF	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
C. CauleySS	.314	2	1	0	0	0	0	0
A. VelazquezSS	.125	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
O. MartinezOF	.158	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. CollinsC	1.000	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		32	9	9	9	1	11	9

Player

.214

.417

.250

.355

.500

.174

.261

.387

.333

.296

.130

.241

.500

.250

.292

.000

.314

.125

.158

1.000

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LatzRP	4.0	3	2	2	3	6	66
J. CorniellSP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	16
C. MartinRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	20
C. WinnRP	1.0	0	1	1	0	0	11
C. BaumlerRP	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17
D. AckerRP	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	13
Team	9.0	4	4	4	6	9	143

Player

4.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.0

Team

9.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
T. FreemanRF	.313	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
C. CarriggCF	.391	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. MoniakLF	.294	2	0	0	1	0	0	0
C. CondonOF	.419	2	0	1	1	0	1	0
T. JohnstonRF	.333	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
B. FulfordDH	.250	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
R. Ritter2B	.342	3	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. Stevens2B	.222	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
R. Brito2B	.200	3	0	0	1	0	1	0
G. HillRF	.429	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
D. JorgeSS	.500	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
T. Hopfe1B	.000	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. CordovaC	.500	0	0	0	0	0	1	0
B. MontgomeryCF	.250	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
B. BetancourtC	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
E. Hedges2B	.333	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
R. Riggio2B	.250	1	1	0	0	0	0	1
Team		29	4	4	3	0	6	9

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. QuintanaSP	3.1	4	5	5	6	5	72
R. MillerRP	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	21
J. HergetRP	0.2	1	2	2	2	1	24
C. BaumgartnerRP	0.1	0	0	0	1	0	12
A. LaskeyRP	4.0	2	0	0	1	3	65
Team	9.0	9	9	9	11	9	194

Team

TEX

COL

3 sub-models, blended.

COL vs TEX.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

COL vs TEX.