Athletics vs Texas Rangers: Final Score & Box Score — Mar 12, 2026

FINAL+1TEX

ATH

9-11

TEX

11-8

Surprise Stadium · Surprise, Arizona

5,035 attended

Model ensemble · how the prediction is built

3 sub-models, blended.

Each sub-model uses a different rating substrate. Bayesian model averaging weights them by rolling Brier score so the ensemble inherits each model's strengths. Disagreement flags games where the sub-models don't see eye-to-eye — lower confidence, wider band.

50.3%

ensemble · TEX favored

Elo Static
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight
Elo Pitching
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
32%
weight
Bullpen Park
fallback · inputs missing
50.0%
P(TEX win)
34%
weight

Disagreement

0.00 pp

weighted σ across sub-models

Confidence

100% · high

maps from disagreement

Substrate count

0 / 3 active

ones with full inputs tonight

Weights recalibrated nightly on a 90-day rolling window with strict point-in-time correctness — no model gets credit for a game it hasn't seen. Headline % is Platt-scaled per league; sub-model rows show raw BMA inputs.

Player projections

TEX vs ATH.

Per-player stat projections built from a recency-weighted blend of the last ten games, season average, and matchup context. Confidence reflects sample size and stability — the top of each list is who to watch.

120

projections · 89 high confidence

Strikeouts

Nathan EovaldiTEX
6.7± 2.1medium
Jacob deGromTEX
6.6± 2.5medium
Gage JumpATH
5.8± 2.8low

Hits

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.1± 1.0high
Josh JungTEX
1.1± 1.0high
Alika WilliamsATH
1.0± 1.0high

Total bases

Brandon NimmoTEX
1.9± 2.3high
Joc PedersonTEX
1.8± 2.4high
Jake BurgerTEX
1.7± 1.8high

RBIs

Nick KurtzATH
0.7± 1.1high
Jake BurgerTEX
0.7± 1.0high
Jonah HeimATH
0.6± 0.7high

Earned runs

Jeffrey SpringsATH
3.5± 2.0medium
Chris PaddackTEX
3.1± 2.4low
Aaron CivaleATH
2.9± 3.3low

Projections recompute every 30 minutes · prop lines plug in once sportsbook ingest lands

Matchup · 2026

Team rate stats vs league

MLB Stats API

ATH

league avg

TEX

.736

OPS

◀

.718

.711

.327

OBP

◀

.319

.320

4.61

Runs / G

◀

4.50

4.05

4.93

Team ERA

4.17

▶

3.96

1.43

WHIP

1.31

▶

1.24

8.5

K / 9

8.5

▶

8.7

Postgame · final

The morning-after recap.

Line score, top performers, model verdict against Vegas, and how the closing line shaped up vs the actual outcome.

Final

TEX wins

ATH 6 · TEX 7 (by 1)

Model verdict

No projection

Against the spread

No spread

Line score

Inning by inning

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R
ATH	1	0	1	0	0	2	1	1	0	6
TEX	0	6	0	0	0	0	1	0	7

What's next

Tomorrow's slate is open.

See every model edge for tonight's remaining games and tomorrow's slate side-by-side, or jump straight to DraftKings & FanDuel for the full board.

MLB edges →Full slate →

Tomorrow's board↗Tomorrow's board↗

21+ · we may earn a referral fee · your odds unchanged.

Data via ESPN · MLB Stats API · Baseball Savant

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. McNeil2B	.360	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
Z. Gelof3B	.429	3	1	1	0	0	0	1
M. Muncy3B	.419	3	2	2	1	1	0	1
A. WynnsC	.304	2	0	1	0	0	1	0
C. ThomasRF	.143	3	0	0	1	0	0	0
L. De VriesSS	.382	3	0	2	1	0	0	1
T. White3B	.435	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. MarloweOF	.294	2	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. BolteCF	.382	2	1	1	1	1	0	1
B. ServenC	.235	1	0	0	1	0	0	0
S. GonzalezSS	.000	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
B. GuedezOF	1.000	2	0	2	0	0	0	0
D. Swift3B	.667	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
C. LearyRF	.125	1	0	0	0	0	1	1
J. Sprague-LottSS	.000	2	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. BlandfordOF	.000	1	1	0	0	0	0	0
J. PerezCF	.160	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. Stefanic2B	.435	1	1	1	1	0	1	0
C. WallachC	.063	2	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		37	6	12	6	2	3	10

Player

.360

.429

.419

.304

.143

.382

.435

.294

.382

.235

.000

1.000

.667

.125

.000

.000

.160

.435

.063

Team

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J.T. GinnSP	4.2	4	4	4	3	5	76
R. MagdicSP	0.1	1	2	2	1	0	8
M. KrookRP	0.2	0	0	0	2	1	21
T. FergusonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4
J. KuhnelRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	2	19
W. SueroRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15
Team	8.0	7	7	6	6	10	143

Player

4.2

0.1

0.2

0.1

1.0

1.0

Team

8.0

143

batting box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
B. NimmoRF	.167	2	1	0	0	0	1	0
W. LangfordLF	.455	3	1	2	3	1	0	1
C. SeagerSS	.238	3	0	0	0	0	0	1
J. Burger1B	.321	3	0	1	0	0	0	1
J. PedersonDH	.167	2	0	0	0	0	1	1
E. CarterCF	.261	3	1	1	0	0	0	0
J. Smith2B	.345	2	1	0	0	0	1	1
E. DuranSS	.250	1	1	0	0	0	2	0
W. MacIverC	.176	2	1	1	3	0	1	1
M. HelmanCF	.136	2	0	0	0	0	0	2
T. HauverRF	1.000	1	1	1	0	0	0	0
T. Wade2B	.524	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. Bride3B	.269	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
H. OsorioCF	.200	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
C. CauleySS	.333	1	0	0	0	0	0	1
R. MartinSS	.318	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
M. TorresRF	.111	1	0	0	0	0	0	0
J. HerreraC	.304	1	0	1	0	0	0	0
Team		31	7	7	6	1	6	10

pitching box score. Tap a column header to sort by that stat; tap again to reverse, a third time to clear. The team leader in each stat is highlighted. Players who did not play are listed at the bottom.
Player
J. LeiterSP	5.0	5	2	2	0	6	57
J. SborzRP	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	22
G. CollyerRP	0.2	2	1	1	2	1	25
A. AndersonRP	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6
R. BrasierRP	1.0	1	1	0	0	0	15
L. CurveloRP	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	25
Team	9.0	12	6	5	3	10	150

Team

ATH

TEX

—

3 sub-models, blended.

TEX vs ATH.

Team rate stats vs league

The morning-after recap.

Inning by inning

Tomorrow's slate is open.

Batters

Pitchers

Batters

Pitchers

TEX vs ATH.